The Painted Area's 2012-13 NBA Awards

With the 2012-13 NBA regular season in the books, let’s get right to it with our mythical awards ballot, which was submitted as part of the ESPN Forecast and the upcoming TrueHoop Network Awards:

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
1. LeBron James, Miami
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
3. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
5. Carmelo Anthony, New York

ALL-NBA TEAMS
First Team
G Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
F LeBron James, Miami
F Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
C Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Second Team
G Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
G James Harden, Houston
F Carmelo Anthony, New York
F Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
C Marc Gasol, Memphis

Third Team
G Dwyane Wade, Miami
G Tony Parker, San Antonio
F Chris Bosh, Miami
F Al Horford, Atlanta
C Brook Lopez, Brooklyn

It was on January 17, watching LeBron James fully in command of the Staples Center stage vs. the Lakers – running the entire game en route to 39 points on 17-25 FG, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals - that I realized we are at the peak. It’s that magical time in a superstar’s career when the arcs of physical and mental excellence intersect.

Soon after, LeBron delivered perhaps the best month of basketball ever played, a February in which he averaged 30-8-8 on ridiculous 64-43-81 shooting as the Heat went 12-1, beginning their march to 27 straight.

All told, at age 28, James produced one of the best regular seasons in NBA history. He has a near-record 31.7 PER, with the ability to guard every position on the floor, for a 65-win team. He deserves to be the NBA’s first unanimous MVP.

Further, LeBron now has the chance to be the first player to produce a 30+ PER in both the regular season and the playoffs, with a championship in TWO seasons. It’s been done only three times total, by Michael Jordan in 1990-91, Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-2000, and James himself in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant’s exceptional season was obviously MVP-caliber as well. KD’s extraordinary 50-40-90 shooting at high volumes is the best shooting season in basketball history. In fact, Durant and James BOTH combined efficiency and usage better than any players in league history. Both players are better than 64% in true shooting percentage with very high usage rates. As Basketball Reference shows, that’s never been done before. And now it’s been done twice in the same season.

Also, Durant’s dramatic improvement in passing – from 2.7 assists per game in 2010-11 to 3.5 in ’11-12 to 4.6 this year – is probably the most impressive development in his continued ascendance, especially considering it’s exactly what OKC needed after losing James Harden’s playmaking.

Chris Paul is still the best point guard in basketball, and the leader of one of the league’s top six teams. CP3 is a clear no. 3 in PER (at 26.3) and on my mythical ballot. Beyond his playmaking, Paul was once again one of the NBA’s best clutch scorers, and leads the league in steals (without gambling excessively) for the fifth time in six years.

Beyond Paul, the choices get quite difficult, especially because so many guards – including Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Tony Parker and Stephen Curry – had strong seasons which are difficult to separate. Westbrook had a better combination of defense and durability (he’s still never missed a game) than the other contenders to narrowly earn my nod. In the big picture Russ is still underrated, if anything, as a driving force in Oklahoma City’s excellence.

Efficiency at the power forward position drove Carmelo Anthony’s career-best season, in which he’s led the Knicks to a surprising 53-28 record while closing in on his first scoring crown. Anthony is shooting a career-best .379 behind the arc despite hoisting 6.2 threes per game, by far and away the most of his career. He also has a career-low turnover rate even with a league- and career-high in usage (Melo had the lowest TO rate for any of the league’s high-usage players).

Since 6-10 are really not that far from 4 and 5 in our book, we’re going to go ahead and rank our next five here: 6. Kobe Bryant, 7. James Harden, 8. Dwyane Wade, 9. Tony Parker, 10. (tie) Tim Duncan and Marc Gasol.

On our All-NBA teams, the guards were pretty much impossible to separate, and we agonized over Duncan vs. Gasol for quite a while as well. Both excelled as anchors for top defensive teams, Duncan was more productive (more productive, ever, than any 36-plus player other than Karl Malone), while Gasol played more minutes. Essentially a coin flip for us.

The real stunner at the center position is that there’s no Dwight Howard to be seen; he could be left off the All-NBA Teams for the first time since 2006.

COACH OF THE YEAR
1. Mike Woodson, New York
2. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio
3. Mark Jackson, Golden State

As usual, there are about a dozen worthy, plausible candidates for Coach of the Year. That said, I’m surprised that Mike Woodson doesn’t seem to be earning much consideration for the award. For a guy considered to have a lack of imagination during his time in Atlanta, he’s been rather creative in maximizing his aged roster in New York.

Whether it’s been coaxing Carmelo into his best season by playing him at power forward, playing two point-guard lineups, or unleashing a three-point-heavy spread offense, Woody’s consistently pushed the right buttons. And, not that it’s relevant to the Coach of the Year discussion, but the Knicks have played a style that’s fun to watch for the first time since the Pitino era, a quarter-century ago.

More than anything, the 53-28 Knicks are simply much better than I thought they’d be. The 45.5 over/under number for seasons set by Vegas before the season seemed about right. In fact, we went back and took a look at the preseason over/under lines for season wins, to gauge which teams exceeded expectations the most.

Here were the top five teams:

HOU 13.5
GS 9.5
NYK 7.5
MEM 6
LAC 5.5

Of course, Houston was a bit of an aberrant case, as they acquired James Harden right before the season, but their line went up just slightly, from 29 to 31.5.

From there, the Warriors and Knicks were big overachievers, which was our sense of things. The overachievement factored into our votes for both Woodson and Mark Jackson – we never thought the Warriors would experience so much improvement without a strong contribution from Andrew Bogut.

The Gregg Popovich vote speaks for itself at this point – he again won in the high-50s despite significant injuries, and most importantly, turned the Spurs back into a top-five defensive team for the first time in several years.

George Karl was the toughest omission, given how he’s constructed a style that’s a perfect fit for his roster - as he always seems to – and led a team without an All-Star to the fourth-best record in the league, at 56-26.

We can’t even quibble with likely winner Erik Spoelstra, given how well he’s methodically molded his team into an offensive and defensive juggernaut over the past three years.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1. Marc Gasol, Memphis
2. Roy Hibbert, Indiana
3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Probably the hardest DPoY pick in several seasons. There was no obvious choice, especially because the two dominant defenses in the NBA – Indiana and Memphis – were true team units. We ended up going with the anchors of the three best defensive teams by opponent points per possessions, and it should be noted that all three were supported by elite perimeter defenders, such as Tony Allen, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, among others.

Recent research unveiled at the Sloan Conference emphasized the importance of deterring shot attempts in the paint, which reinforced the defensive preeminence of big men to us. When in doubt, we go big for DPoY unless the perimeter defense is simply too extraordinary to overlook.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
1. Damian Lillard, Portland
2. Anthony Davis, New Orleans
3. Andre Drummond, Detroit

ALL-ROOKIE TEAMS
First Team
Damian Lillard, Portland
Anthony Davis, New Orleans
Andre Drummond, Detroit
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte
Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto

Second Team
Bradley Beal, Washington
Dion Waiters, Cleveland
Harrison Barnes, Golden State
Maurice Harkless, Orlando
Pablo Prigioni, New York

A little bit of a strange year for rookies, in that I had no problem giving Damian Lillard my ROY vote, yet I tend to think that about five of his fellow rookies will end having better NBA careers. But Lillard wins on the strength of what Hubie Brown calls “attendance”, and age, really. Don’t get me wrong, Lillard was impressive in shouldering a big load for the Blazers, as a lead guard who averaged nearly 39 minutes while playing in all 82 games.

But, at age 22 with three-plus years of college play under his belt, Lillard is a more polished product than the promising youngsters in the class, such as potential stars Anthony Davis (just turned 20) and Andre Drummond (19), as well as Bradley Beal (19), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (19) and Jonas Valanciunas (20). Indeed, if there were a 2012 re-draft, Davis and Drummond would surely go 1-2, with Beal right behind them.

I had a very difficult time choosing two among MKG, Valanciunas and Beal for my last two First Team slots. Defense was the deciding factor for Kidd-Gilchrist, and superior overall production flipped the coin in favor of Valanciunas over Beal.

It’s probably unfair to Beal - who I consider the third-best prospect in this class – who improved markedly after John Wall showed up to liberate him, but the early-season struggles still count against him, and he also missed 26 games.

In any event, Valanciunas certainly deserves more consideration for All-Rookie First Team than he’s been getting (which is very little). Jonas had the 4th-best PER (15.5), by a good margin, out of rookies who played more than 20 minutes per game.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
1. J.R. Smith, New York
2. Jamal Crawford, L.A. Clippers
3. Amir Johnson, Toronto

Yet another decision that was difficult to unspool, with so many worthy candidates. If anything, the Clippers or Nuggets second units probably deserved to share this award this year – their outstanding work by committee outshined any individual performance off the bench in 2012-13.

But J.R. Smith earns the award in part via the sheer volume of his work. He managed to lead the Knicks in minutes, by being one of the few players avoid injury, logging 33.5 minutes per game in 80 games played, lighting it up for 18.1 ppg in that time, second only on the Knicks to Carmelo.

In Favor of NBA Goaltending Rules > FIBA's

In FIBA basketball, goaltending rules allow for the ball to be live after it hits the rim. In other words, what's known as basket interference in most of American basketball is a legal play in the international game.

Many, including outgoing commissioner David Stern, have called for the NBA to adopt the FIBA rules regarding basket interference.

I favor the American goaltending rules, and the wild finish to Tuesday's Rockets-Suns game helps illustrate why. For a quick recap, the game was tied 98-98 in the final seconds, when James Harden launched a three which bounced high in the air before hitting the rim again. Jermaine O'Neal knocked the ball away while it was still "within the cylinder" above the rim for the rare buzzer-beating goaltend on a three, which won the game for the Rockets. Here's a look at the play:



It's not a perfect illustration for a couple reasons: 1) The shot had little chance of going in on the second bounce and 2) O'Neal's hand appeared to partially come up under the rim, which is a goaltend under any rules, including FIBA's.

So, imagine a slightly different play, in which:
• Harden's shot had a softer second bounce, with a 50-50 chance of going in, and
• O'Neal simply knocked it away off the rim cleanly.

By FIBA goaltending rules for basket interference, that slightly different play would have been legal. Would that have been a fun play to watch? A satisfying way for regulation to have ended? To me, it would not.

A ball bouncing around and rolling on the rim, especially in an important moment -- Did the shooter put the ball up softly enough? Will he get the roll? -- is an exciting play!

There seems to be a sense that the FIBA rules would unleash an extra level of above-the-rim play in the NBA. But in reality, most instances of legal basket interference in FIBA basketball look an awful lot like O'Neal's play on Tuesday: a defensive big man reaches up and easily knocks the ball away off the rim, at about 10'1" in the air.

There's a theory that the superior athleticism of NBA players would lead to more spectacular putbacks on offensive rebounds with FIBA rules, but based on what we've seen from NBA players in Olympic and World Championship play, there are a few extra "guide-in" followups of balls on the rim.

Ultimately, the rule is not a major deal, as it affects a small percentage of plays. But I think the "shooter's roll" is more fun to watch than a "No soup for you!" denial by a big man reaching up to the rim.

Effective Age Snapshot: Heat Would Be Among Oldest NBA Champs, Thunder Still Among Youngest

Today, we're examining the "effective age" numbers for this season's top NBA teams. Effective age is a metric used by ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton to measure a team's average age, but weighted by minutes played, rather than a straight average (which artificially inflates the average number for a team like New York, for example, if senior citizens like Marcus Camby (38) and Kurt Thomas (40) are given the same weight as heavy-minutes players such as Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Ray Felton (all under 30)).

Below, we offer the effective ages of the top eight NBA teams currently. (Note that we based our calculations on Basketball-Reference's rounded age number, set to the player's age on February 1 of a given season.)

Effective Age, 2012-13
NYK 30.26
MIA 30.11
SAS 28.80
LAC 28.77
MEM 26.86
DEN 26.11
OKC 25.92
IND 25.77

(As an addendum, the Lakers stand even older than the Knicks, at 30.69.)

Based on their current effective age number, the Heat would rank as the sixth-oldest champion in 67 NBA seasons if they were to repeat in June. Here are the top 10 oldest NBA champions:

YEAR TEAM eAGE
1998 CHI 31.7
2011 DAL 30.9
1997 CHI 30.7
1969 BOS 30.5
2007 SAS 30.4
1999 SAS 30.1
1996 CHI 29.9
1990 DET 29.5
1972 LAL 29.5
1968 BOS 29.5

The Heat have gotten markedly older in 2012-13. Here is their progression in the LeBron Era:

2010-11: 28.99
2011-12: 28.27
2012-13: 30.11

In 2011, we plotted out the effective ages for every NBA champion. Miami's 28.3 mark last season put them around 27th of 66, pretty squarely in the middle of the pack, considering that NBA ages have gone up as enhancements in salary, training and medicine have allowed players to play longer.

Now, the Heat have quickly become one of the oldest NBA contenders. Of course, a major reason behind this increase is the big transfer of minutes from Joel Anthony (29 last season) to Ray Allen (37). [Note: all ages in this post will be the Basketball-Reference Feb. 1 number.] But the Heat have also done very little to replenish their supporting cast with youth, mainly choosing to roll over the roster with everyone getting a year older. There are several thirtysomethings, and the only two rotation players younger than 28 are Mario Chalmers (26) and one of the worst rotation players in the league, Norris Cole (24).

Should this be a cause for concern for Miami's title chances in 2013? As the Heat roll through the league on their current 16-game winning streak, with their offense reaching near-historic levels, we'd definitely say no. They're still well within the range of other champions, and it's not unreasonable to think that teams might continue to get a little older as players continue to play longer.

But going forward, the birth certificates have to be a little troubling for Heat fans. Take another look at that list of oldest champions above. A couple of those teams ('98 Bulls and '69 Celtics) were (legendarily) at the very end of the line, and a couple ('11 Mavs and '69 Celtics again) were, shall we say, rather fortunate title-winners.

The Heat are likely committed (there are various player options and potential for retirements) to geezers like Allen (37), Shane Battier (34) and Rashard Lewis (33) through 2014, and Mike Miller (32), Udonis Haslem (32) and Joel Anthony (30) through 2015. Not to mention, a player who provides Miami with vital athleticism, Dwyane Wade, is also 31.

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Given the way the Pacers have played over the last three months (28-12 after a 10-11 start), especially on the defensive end, they are an increasingly intriguing darkhorse challenger to the Eastern throne in 2013, though the Heat are still heavy favorites.

But what's striking for the future is that Indiana has quietly become an even younger team than the famously youthful Thunder (though Lance Stephenson (22) filling in for an injured Danny Granger (29) for several months does probably drive the number especially low). If the Pacers can keep their core together, they appear to be a team poised for improvement, while Miami is danger of decline. Lots can happen to shake things up on the offseason movement carousel, but it's something to watch going forward.

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Now compare Miami's approach to that of San Antonio, which has gone through this three-year age progression:

2010-11: 28.80
2011-12: 27.52
2012-13: 28.80

It's possibly surprising that the Spurs are younger than the Heat overall, given that the headliners in S.A. are the aged Big 3 of Duncan (36), Ginobili (35) and Parker (30). But San Antonio has done a fine job of filling in the gaps with under-30s like Kawhi Leonard (21), Tiago Splitter (28), Danny Green (25) and Gary Neal (28).

In fact, when looking back on the 2012 Western Conference Finals with Bill Simmons, Tony Parker suggested that a problem for the Spurs might have been that they were too young rather than too old, given that Leonard and Green were both in their first seasons of NBA playing time. Indeed, it's conceivable that a Heat-Spurs Finals could well be decided by whether the likes of Allen, Battier and Haslem are still spry enough to keep up with Leonard, Splitter and Green.

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On the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma City (at 25.92) is still in line to be one of the very youngest NBA champs ever. Here are the top 10 youngest:

YEAR TEAM eAGE
1977 POR 24.5
1950 MIN 25.1*
1949 MIN 25.7*
1956 PHW 25.7
1947 PHW 25.8*
1952 MIN 25.8
1975 GSW 25.8
1955 SYR 26.1
1971 MIL 26.1
1980 LAL 26.2

* Effective age weighted by points rather than minutes

Given how early careers ended in the NBA's pioneer days, this year's Thunder would essentially be the third-youngest NBA champion behind the '77 Blazers and '75 Warriors.

Meanwhile, here is the Thunder's three-year age progression:

2010-11: 23.74
2011-12: 25.10
2012-13: 25.92

We're surprised that OKC's number didn't go even higher, given the James Harden (22 last season) for Kevin Martin (29) trade. But Serge Ibaka (23) has stepped into a larger role, and minutes from the likes of Derek Fisher (37 last season) and Nazr Muhammad (34) have been transferred to Reggie Jackson (21) and Hasheem Thabeet (25).

It would still be a truly remarkable accomplishment if the Thunder were to win with such a young team, especially as NBA ages seem to go up, and especially with a nucleus that's just 24 (Kevin Durant), 24 (Russell Westbrook), and 23 (Serge Ibaka).

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One last note before we go. One of our favorite tidbits from the full list of champion ages is this progression of five consecutive championships during the heart of the Celtics dynasty:

YEAR TEAM eAGE
1961 BOS 28.3
1962 BOS 28.0
1963 BOS 28.3
1964 BOS 28.4
1965 BOS 28.3

Red Auerbach was able to keep the team at essentially the same age, right in the sweet spot for championship effective age, for five straight seasons! Really a pretty amazing job of shifting roles gradually, as both coach and GM, especially given that it was a pre-free agency era.

We'll see if the Heat come to regret not finding ways to similarly infuse new sources of youth into their rotation.

Trade Deadline Musings: What If Thomas Robinson Just Isn't That Good?

I've been surprised by the vehemence of the negative reaction to Sacramento's trade of Thomas Robinson to Houston for Patrick Patterson (the core players of this deal). I feel like there is a lot of noise obscuring a fair reading of this question: Did Sacramento make its team better with this trade?

The Maloofs are inarguably complete disasters as owners, close to destroying one of the league's best fan bases. Geoff Petrie has suffered an inglorious slide from the turn of the century, when he was arguably the best GM in the league, to now, when the Sacramento front office has fallen far behind the times as other teams have modernized rapidly. But I believe the (fair) perceptions of the Maloofs and Petrie are affecting a fair evaluation of this trade.

Let's concede two points:
1. The Kings likely could have gotten a better deal for Robinson. No one in the media knows for sure, and it's always easy to suggest that Mythical Trade X was out there, but sure, I'll concede that Sacramento likely could have received a better swap of assets than what Petrie achieved.

2. Robinson has a better contract than Patterson, in that T-Rob has three years left on his rookie deal, while P-Pat has just one. No doubt.

But a lot has been made of the Maloofs saving $3 million this year on this deal (which actually amounts to $1M when pro-rated). This streamlines right into the narrative because the Maloofs have demonstrated that they are cheap, awful owners, but really, this savings doesn't seriously impact the future of the Kings if they made their team better with this trade.

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So, Thomas Robinson. For all of the criticism of this trade, what if it turns out that Robinson just isn't that good?

I'm not claiming to be the world's best talent evaluator - there are plenty of hits and misses in The Painted Area archives - but I was not that high on Robinson coming out of Kansas, and he's been about the same guy I expected in Sacramento. Robinson struck me as a player who was an elite college athlete, physically dominant in NCAA ball (especially as an older, third-year player), but there was a marked contrast when matched up against an elite pro athlete such as Anthony Davis.

T-Rob struggled to convert against Kentucky, against whom he went 11-29 on FG in two games, and this has carried over the pros, where he's had 10.8% of his shots blocked, and converted a poor 54.4% of shots at the rim. Robinson *looks* like an elite NBA athlete, with his chiseled physique, but I don't believe that he actually is one.

Overall, Robinson rates a fairly dismal 23rd among rookies in PER (10.9) and 26th in EWA (basically PER taking total minutes into account), despite being one of the older, more-experienced rookies taken in the lottery. What's more, when I open up my trusted copy of Pro Basketball Prospectus by ESPN's Kevin Pelton, I find that the translated stats from Robinson's junior season projected his production as an NBA rookie pretty much dead on - with very good rebounder and very inefficient scorer being the two headlines. (Though it is worth noting that Robinson's stats from his sophomore season, when he played far fewer minutes, give him a more favorable projection.)

Both my eyes and the numbers suggest that Robinson is a little bit more than 'just a guy', a solid rotation big overall.

Patterson, meanwhile, has a career PER of 14.2, including 15.6 this season. Robinson is a far better rebounder, but Patterson is a far better shooter, and has been more productive overall. He'll likely fit better next to DeMarcus Cousins on offense (though Patterson doesn't help SAC's dismal rebounding), and also certainly fit far better next to Omer Asik in Houston than Robinson will.

I'm not suggesting Patrick Patterson's an All-Star, but I think he's a better player than Robinson. I've seen some sentiment that Patterson may be better today, but Robinson surely has greater upside. I mean, first of all, Patterson's only 23, just two years older than Robinson; he's not necessarily a finished product in his own right. And again, I just don't see the evidence of great Robinson upside. Just because he was the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft doesn't make it so.

And T-Rob's being the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft is yet another fact which I believe is obscuring a fair evaluation of this trade. "How can a team give up on its lottery pick during his rookie season?!", the masses are wailing.

Well, I mean, isn't this what we *want* GM's to do? Don't we ding decision-makers for sticking with the guys they chose strictly for the reason that these are the guys they chose? Isn't it better to get rid of lottery picks who can't play sooner rather than later? Is, for example, the Sixers' continued multi-year charade of treating Evan Turner like he can play strictly because he was the no. 2 pick the preferred route?

The Draft was where Sacramento made the big error with Robinson, in drafting him ahead of players like Damian Lillard and Andre Drummond. But, honestly, the fact that he was the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft is irrelevant to the substance of this trade, at this point.

I think we can get caught up in evaluating trades against the Platonic ideal of what could have happened sometimes, rather than just evaluating them on their faces. Could the Kings have gotten more for Robinson? Probably. Is Patterson better enough to justify the difference in salary in a couple years? Possibly not, but possibly so.

I believe that Sacramento is a better team, both short-term and long-term, following this deal, though just incrementally. I think it's a pretty good deal for the Kings, which could well turn out to be not-so-great. But I just don't see this being anywhere near the colossal disaster as it's being portrayed by many.

I think that the fact that the Maloofs are terrible owners, and that Petrie has a subpar track record recently (such as the 2011 Jimmer draft trade which was a true disaster), and that Robinson was the no. 5 pick last year, are unfairly contributing to the portrayal of this trade as an unmitigated disaster. The next owners of the Kings franchise, be they in Sacramento or Seattle, will still have plenty of heavy lifting ahead, but this trade will not set them back materially.

2012-13 NBA Win Over/Under Predictions

[Editor's note, Oct. 30, 2012: On season's eve, in the wake of the James Harden trade, we have rescinded our Houston under pick, and replaced it with an OKC under pick below, and also updated all Hollinger/Pelton projected win totals to their final numbers. More below.]

Hello, folks. We're back with one of our annual favorites here at The Painted Area, as we offer our predictions for picking NBA regular-season win over/unders.

For the record, we were 5-2 in O/U predictions in 2011-12 - with both losses by a painful mere half-game - and the 71% success rate lifted our lifetime winning percentage since we started The Painted Area to a robust 68.5%.

Here are our year-by-year records for the six years we've been publishing our picks:

Season  TPA  
06-07   6-1  
07-08   3-4  
08-09   5-2  
09-10   3-2 
10-11   5-2 
11-12   5-2
Total   27-13

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For 2012-13, let's go straight to the data. What we've done below is:

a) sorted each conference in order of the posted over/under line for season wins,
b) provided predicted '12-13 wins from two of the smartest men in the business: ESPN's John Hollinger, and Basketball Prospectus' Kevin Pelton (from his essential book, Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12), and
c) provided '11-12 wins, *pro-rated to a 82-game season for apples-to-apples comparison.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

EAST
(O/U Line  - JH/KP - '11-12*)
MIA   61.5 - 64/58 - 57
BOS   50.5 - 48/48 - 48
IND   50.5 - 52/44 - 52
CHI   47.5 - 43/47 - 62
PHI   47   - 45/46 - 44
BKN   46   - 46/45 - 27
NYK   45.5 - 44/46 - 45
ATL   43   - 45/49 - 50
MIL   37.5 - 37/38 - 39
TOR   33.5 - 33/41 - 29
DET   32   - 27/31 - 31
CLE   31.5 - 34/32 - 26
WAS   28.5 - 38/27 - 25
ORL   24.5 - 17/28 - 46
CHA   18.5 - 16/21 -  9

WEST
(O/U Line  - JH/KP - '11-12*)
OKC   60.5 - 54/51 - 58
LAL   58   - 53/54 - 51
SAS   55.5 - 60/53 - 62
DEN   51.5 - 59/55 - 47
LAC   49.5 - 47/49 - 50
MEM   49   - 50/45 - 51
UTH   44   - 44/45 - 45
DAL   41.5 - 42/41 - 45
MIN   38.5 - 43/51 - 32
GSW   36.5 - 40/29 - 29
POR   33   - 27/31 - 35
PHX   33   - 24/28 - 41
SAC   31   - 31/32 - 27
HOU   29   - 37/30 - 42
NOH   26.5 - 30/36 - 26

Here are what we're calling the consensus picks from Hollinger/Pelton - teams which are at least four wins above or below the line in the same direction by both men's projections [Oct. 30 note: mass chaos here post-Harden trade, we're adjusting the threshold down from 4 wins to 3.5 wins to make it easier, with a couple new additions]:

DEN Over 51.5
MIN Over 38.5
PHX Under 33
LAL Under 58
NOH Over 26.5
OKC Under 59.5 (line was adjusted down from 60.5 post-trade)

Note that the H/P consensus picks were 5-0 last season (when we went three games +/- due to the shorter schedule). **********************
THE PAINTED AREA'S RECOMMENDED 2012-13 O/U PREDICTIONS
Hollinger/Pelton consensus forms the bedrock of our approach. From those scientific underpinnings, we add our own artistic license on top, often with coaching factors (which fall outside of player-projection systems) playing a role.
Here are our recommended picks for 2012-13:

• DEN Over 51.5
• MIN Over 38.5
• PHX Under 33
• TOR Over 33.5
• ORL Under 24.5
• PHI Under 47
• HOU Under 29
• OKC Under 59.5 (updated, post-trade line)

Here's our rationale on the team picks:
DENVER OVER 51.5 (38 last season/47 pro-rated)
Our three Over picks are all repeats from last season which were all winners for us. Andre Iguodala is a deserved All-Star and Olympian - he was our choice for Defensive Player of the Year last year - and we think that the trade which brought him to Denver in return for Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington is a big win for the Nuggets. He should provide a significant upgrade on D, while also fitting in with Denver's potent running, attacking offensive style.
We also love going Over on teams with lots of depth, to withstand the rigors of the long season, and the Nuggets go 10 deep with legit rotation players.

MINNESOTA OVER 38.5 (26 last season/32 pro-rated)
Feeling quite confident in this one despite the recent Kevin Love injury, on top of the Ricky Rubio torn ACL from last season. We thought this was a 50-win team before Love's injury, and don't think the superstar's absence of a month or so will affect Minny's W total too drastically.
We love how the Timberwolves upgraded from complete garbage (Wes Johnson, Webster, Ellington, Tolliver, Darko) to above-average (Budinger, Kirilenko, Alexei Shved, Greg Stiemsma, Roy) all over the place. This has quietly become an extremely deep team - we count 12-13 plausible NBA rotation players on the roster.

PHOENIX UNDER 33 (33 last season/41 pro-rated)
Steve Nash, Channing Frye, Grant Hill and Robin Lopez have been replaced by Goran Dragic, Luis Scola, Michael Beasley and Wes Johnson. We like Dragic quite a bit, but this is Steve Nash we're talking about. We've loved Scola for years, but think he's in decline at 32. Too many spare parts, without Nash to hold it all together. We see a big dropoff this year.
After going Over on MIN and Under on PHX, is it fair to say we have a bias against Wes Johnson, who was 3rd in minutes for the T-wolves last year? You'd better believe it.

TORONTO OVER 33.5 (23 last season/29 pro-rated)
Toronto crushed its O/U line of 16.5 last season as new coach Dwane Casey (a Painted Area favorite) oversaw a major improvement on defense, and we're back for more. The Raptors added one of the more underrated players in the league in Kyle Lowry as well as promising rookie center Jonas Valanciunas, who should be productive though he may struggle with foul trouble. And don't forget that Toronto's improvement last season came even though its best offensive player, Andrea Bargnani, missed half the season due to injury.

ORLANDO UNDER 24.5 (37 last season/46 pro-rated)
It's always tough to go in the opposite direction of Pelton, who has the Magic pegged for 26 wins, not to mention going under such a low number. But consider that Pelton's SCHOENE projection system does not include any coaching factors. In our opinion, going from an elite head coach in Stan Van Gundy to a rookie in Jacque Vaughn should cost Orlando several games on top of the devastating losses of Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson, with little in return. This team could well be in the running for the most lottery combinations.

PHILADELPHIA UNDER 47 (35 last season/44 pro-rated)
Another gut call here, as both Pelton and Hollinger project Philly right around the 47 number. As much as we are Andrew Bynum proponents, we find it tough to believe that a team which turned Iguodala, Lou Williams, Elton Brand and Jodie Meeks into Bynum, Nick Young, Dorell Wright, Kwame Brown and Jason Richardson to have improved. Though it is worth noting that the Sixers drastically underperformed its +4.2 point differential, which suggested they were the equivalent of about a 55-win team (over an 82-game season), and they've also been the league's best team in the preseason, for what that's worth, at 6-1 with a +11 point differential without Bynum.
Still, we're going with the subjective call of banking on Bynum's knees not fully holding up and Doug Collins' message starting to wear off in year three.

[Oct. 30 update: The Rockets line was moved up to 31.5, and we think they'll be right around that number with James Harden in the fold. Hollinger now has Houston all the way up to 37 wins. Pass. We're subbing in the OKC under below.]

HOUSTON UNDER 29 (34 last season/42 pro-rated)
Seven out of Houston's nine most productive players last year are gone, and of the two left (Chandler Parsons, Kevin Martin), Martin seems like a decent bet to be jettisoned by the trade deadline. In their stead, the Rockets picked a few good vets (Jeremy Lin, Carlos Delfino, Omer Asik), and of course, still have an army of unproven youngsters picked in the mid-first round. After Houston has missed out on landing a cornerstone big men, we're banking on them playing to max out their lottery combinations from here.

OKLAHOMA CITY UNDER 59.5 (47 last season/58 pro-rated)
The lines have barely moved for OKC in the wake of the Harden trade (from 60.5 to 59.5 in this case), which is surprising to us as we think this is a significant blow, which should knock them back from about 60 wins to about 55. We predict the Under without hesitation here.

OK, there you have it. Two teams we couldn't quite pull the trigger on were Miami Under 61.5 and the Lakers Under 58. The Heat, remember, have won "just" 58 and (pro-rated) 57 in the past two years, and are still very thin beyond the Big 3. But the Eastern Conference looks so weakened on top, with steep drops expected by both Chicago and Orlando, that it just makes us too nervous.

Similarly, the Lakers seem built for the playoffs rather than the regular season, with their thin bench and reliance on several 30+ players. We expect L.A. to go Under such a high number, but this team is just such an unknown, and Dwight is really the x-factor to us. If he is engaged and healthy and can quickly regain his form as the league's second-best player, there's no reason this team can't be a juggernaut in the winter as well as the spring. Pass.

Nonetheless, we think both of these teams are optimized for the postseason, and - following the Harden trade - they are our picks to meet in the 2013 NBA Finals. Our original thought was Oklahoma City over Miami, but the trade changed all that. What looked like a Western Conference dynasty now has some serious work to do to get back to June basketball.

We're predicting the Miami Heat to defeat the Los Angeles Lakers to repeat as champions in 2012-13, with the Celtics and the Thunder as the two other teams in the pro final four.

Alright, hoopheads, there you have it. The League is back, rejoice.