Early Look At The 2010 FIBA Worlds Field

The field of 24 for the 2010 FIBA Worlds was officially set with the announcement over the weekend that Lithuania, Germany, Russia and Lebanon secured wild-card berths.

Have to hand it to the FIBA brass for picking the European teams who were most deserving of a spot in Turkey. Didn't let Grand Poobah Stern bogart them into choosing Britain for a berth over a more deserving team like Germ., Lith., or Russia.

Would have preferred Dom. Republic getting the non-European berth over Lebanon because the Dominicans could have put a more competitive team on the floor. But can't quibble with the selection too much since Lebanon's fan base showcased voracious grass-roots support.

On Tuesday, FIBA held a draw in Istanbul to split up the 24 teams into four groups of six. Group play begins on August 28th. Each team plays every other team in its group once. The top four teams from each group earn a spot in the single-elimination playoff portion that starts Sept. 4th.

This is how the draw shook out for the preliminary round (listed in predicted order of finish):

Group A: Argentina; Serbia; Germany; Australia; Angola; Jordan
Group B: USA; Slovenia; Brazil; Croatia; Iran; Tunisia
Group C: Greece; Turkey; Russia; Puerto Rico; China; Ivory Coast
Group D: Spain; Lithuania; France; Canada; New Zealand; Lebanon

Quick take on the opening-round groupings:
Really don't see a clear-cut "Group of Death". Think the groupings are pretty well balanced. Group B could be tough if Croatia plays up to its talent level. Team USA will have to face off vs. big frontlines in group play that could hurt them if they choose to run Melo or Bron at the 4-spot.

Greece lucked into a very good situation by being able to avoid USA or Spain until the finals. Though, Turkey or Russia could win Group C instead of Greece. Group C could have five playoff-caliber teams, if Yao goes for China.

I would say the draw worked in Argentina's favor, considering Serbia, Germany and Australia all should be solid next summer, but none great. Also, if everything goes according to form, Arg. gets to avoid Spain & USA until the finals.

Group D looks very top heavy with three legit medal contenders. Just too bad we will be likely robbed of a Team USA-Spain Gold medal game, as they are slated to meet in the semis.
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Below we prematurely try to rank the teams into tiers. Obviously we should have a better take on the Worlds' field once the summer rolls around and rosters get set. (Tier I is ranked 1-5, Tiers II-V listed in alpha. order)

TIER I (The Main Contenders):

1) USA (Group B): Probably could put this team in a tier by themselves, or at least in a tier just with Spain. No doubt the heavy favorite for Gold. Mr. Colangelo has not gotten a firm commitment from Lebron, Wade or Bosh, so we'll see how this shakes out over the next few months. No doubt an endless reserve of talent to choose from if some of the big guns sit out. Placed in a fairly tough opening group with probably the best 2-seed team, Slovenia. Will be going up against some big, talented frontlines in Group B that could take advantage of Team USA's propensity to go small at the 4. Expect them to take home the Worlds title for the first time since 1994.

2) SPAIN (Group D): Even if Pau decides to take next summer off, the defending champ still has the goods to be the top challenger to Team USA. Lithuania and France should push Spain for Group D supremacy. Besides Pau's possible absence, Spain could be without the services of Rudy. Still plenty of firepower with Rubio, J. Navarro, Sergio Llull, Vic Claver, F. Reyes, and Marc Gasol at Coach Scariolo's disposal. Not sure if vets like Calderon, Garbajosa and Fran Vasquez will suit up for Espana. Expect uptempo play combined with lots of ball pressure in group play. Keep Sept. 11th clear on your calendar, as that's the date of a probable Spain-US semifinal.

3) ARGENTINA (Group A): Tentatively have them penciled in as the 3rd best team overall, but could see them slipping. Did get a favorable draw as they can avoid Spain and Team USA until the finals (if they make it that far). Manu is still dealing with lingering injuries and will be 33 by the time the Worlds start. Nocioni has balky knees that could force him to sit. Actually, most of Argentina's key guys (Prigioni, Oberto, Scola) will be 30 years old by the time the Worlds roll around--only Delfino is in his 20s. Lots of questions with this roster. Have not really replenished with any type of young talent and don't have much depth.

4) GREECE (Group C): Medal contender that could be the 3rd best team at the Worlds if Argentina can't overcome its age & injury issues. Theo Papaloukas and Dimis Diamantidis have stated they will be heading to Turkey next summer, which adds more firepower to a team that would be potent without these two vets. Greece took home the Bronze without them at last summer's Eurobasket, led by the dynamic play of V. Spanoulis. Always had been known for their aggressive half-court defense, but showed this year that they could be equally dangerous on the offensive end. No filler on this roster--deep upfront and in the backcourt. Guys like Sofo Schortsanitis, G. Bourousis, Antonis Fotsis, K. Koufos dot the frontline. Have three top-notch playmakers in Spanoulis, Diamantidis, Papaloukas. Next summer could be the best Greece team we seen in their recent run thanks to maturation of Spanoulis, Big Sofo and Bourousis.

5) SLOVENIA (Group B): This team is ready to slide into the upper echelon, really liking this team. Right now, think this is the 5th-best team in the field (if at full strength), and is probably just as good as Greece. And they could be headed for a matchup vs. Greece in the quarters. If they can get most of their main guys healthy next summer, they can compete for a medal. Thought they were the second best team at Eurobasket and had the 2nd best player in the tourney, Erazem Lorbek. Think they would have beaten Serbia if Goran Dragic was healthy. Jaka Lakovic had to go too many minutes in the semis and he made some crucial blunders down the stretch. Snake-bitten by injuries last summer: Matjaz Smodis barely played, Dragic had to sit out the last few games, not to mention Beno Udrih and Sani Becirovic had to sit the whole tourney out. This team has a wealth of options and can put five deep shooters on the floor together thanks to Smodis & Lorbek's range. Lorbek & Smodis are two of the most fundamentally sound bigs outside the NBA. Bostjan Nachbar is a great option at SF and might pair with promising prospect Emir Preldzic (Cavs own rights). If they have the fortune of bringing most of top players, they can could slide above Argentina. Will see how the recent departure of Coach Jure Zdovc effects this team considering the strong job he did with a short-handed lineup last summer.

TIER II (Could win a game or two in playoff rounds):

BRAZIL (Group B): After underachieving the last few years, Brazil played some of the best ball they've ever played at the FIBA Americas tourney. The tandem of Tiago Splitter and A. Varejao was superb at both ends of the floor at the FIBA Americas. Best defensive frontline on the int'l stage. And if Nene joins next summer it adds more potency to this defensive front. L. Barbosa was an offensive force at the FIBA Americas finishing behind only Scola in scoring average with 21 ppg. The switch to Moncho Monsalve as head coach paid dividends right away, after some problems with the previous coach. Monsalve brought better flow and movement on the offensive end. Monsalve also made a concerted effort to get plenty of post-up action for his bigs, something his predecessor failed to do. Will be interesting to see Barbosa's status by next summer, since he has struggled to stay healthy in the first six weeks of the NBA season. This team is dangerous in transition thanks to great speed across the board. Marcelo Huertas and Alex Garcia add more quality speed next to Barbosa in the backcourt. Not an incredibly deep team and Coach Monsalve only seemed to have faith in 6-7 players--used a short rotation last summer that could be taxed by tough comp day-after-day at the Worlds.

FRANCE (Group D): Though they finished in 5th place at Eurobasket, France's only loss of the tourney came in the quarters vs. Spain. Should continue to be a strong defensive unit and tough on the boards. We harped ad nauseum that this squad's outside shooting ability holds them back from consistent medal contention. But we might have to start to soften that stance since France shot the ball fairly well at Eurobasket and seem to be improving its collective perimeter marksmanship. The roster should not be hurting for talent next year with names like Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Nic Batum, Ronny Turiaf and Florent Pietrus likely headed to Turkey. Will see if Mickael Pietrus, Roddy Beaubois and Joakim Noah join Les Bleus next summer. If they can finally add consistent shooting to their arsenal, the Frenchies will be a formidable force in Turkey.

LITHUANIA (Group D): Were forced to gain entry through the wild-card process after underachieving at Eurobasket. Their only win came against Bulgaria. The crux of Lith's problems last summer revolved around a patchwork backcourt that could not come close to replicating the playmaking brilliance of Saras Jasikevicius and Ramunas Siskauskas. Saras and Rimantas Kaukenas have indicated they will be available next summer, which is huge for Lithuania's fortunes. Though, it looks like Siskauskas has retired from national-team duties. His loss can't be taken lightly, considering he was Lithuania's secondary playmaker next to Jasikevicius. Frontcourt rotation is one of the best in the world. Spurs draftee Robertas Javtokas should be back and the Lavrinovic twins are currently playing well in Euroleague action. 6-9 Marijonas Petravicius gives Lith. an old-school bruiser who happened to be Lithuania's most consistent player last summer. Linas Kleiza can play inside & out and is playing superb ball right now for Olympiacos. As usual, Lith. will have shooters everywhere and expect crisp ball-movement to return with Saras back. If Saras can play like he did a couple of years ago (a big if), Lithuania becomes a legit medal contender.

RUSSIA (Group C): Coach David Blatt squeezed as much as you could ask from his undermanned Russian club last summer. Finished in 7th place without its two best players, one spot short of automatically qualifying for a Worlds spot. With Kirilenko and Vik Khryapa back in the fold next summer, Russia becomes a major player again. Very strong forward rotation of AK47, Khryapa, Sergey Monya and Kelly McCarty--all terrific defenders. Promising young big Timo Mozgov gives Russia an athletic, physical presence inside. Though, Timo is still rather raw and has trouble staying out of foul trouble. Need to get more consistent play from their PG tandem of Sergey Bykov & Anton Ponkrashov. Still could see some dry spells on the offensive end, but expect stellar defensive effort. Can compete on the same level as Greece and Turkey in Group C.

SERBIA (Group A): Coming off a surprising 2nd place finish at the 2009 Eurobasket. Went with a youth movement last summer and that really paid off. Serbia got great effort from nearly the whole roster. PG Milos Teodosic had a breakout tourney and Nenad Krstic was solid throughout. Serbia even saw some strong efforts from NBA castoff Kosta Perovic at Eurobasket. Teodosic got solid help on the perimeter from combo guard Milenko Tepic and sharpshooter Uros Tripkovic. Multi-skilled forward Novica Velickovic was a key contributor as well. Velickovic is one of the better potential NBA free agent targets in Europe, who's currently thriving with Euroleague power Real Madrid. Could steal 1st place in Group A if Argentina can't come healthy.

TURKEY (Group C): Started the '09 Eurobasket strongly but kind of lost steam as the tourney progressed. The Turks are led by their combo of multi-skilled 6-9 forwards, Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova. Have had issues with getting steady play at the PG spot in the past, but got nice contributions from Kerem Tunceri and Ender Arslan last summer. 7-footer Omer Asik gives Turkey an athletic presence in the painted area. Though, the Bulls draftee sometimes needs to be pulled late in games because of his dreadful foul shooting. Not sure if Memo Okur will join Hedo & Ersan. Though, even without Memo, this team is a formidable bunch who has the advantage of playing at home.

TIER III (Should advance out of group play):

AUSTRALIA (Group A): Impressive frontline rotation that could include A. Bogut, Dave Andersen, Nathan Jawai, current Vandy standout Andrew Ogilvy and former Wazzu bruiser Aron Baynes. Made the Round of 16 in 2006 where they were bounced by Team USA. Portland Trail Blazer Patty Mills should also be on board and made a quite a splash the last time he performed on the int'l stage. Right now, see the Aussies finishing with the 4-seed in Group A, but could get a 2-seed since I don't feel Serbia or Germany is much better than them. But Australia could easily be upended by Angola and fail to advance to the Round of 16. Though, they look to be in good shape vs. Angola because of their wealth of 7-footers.

CANADA (Group D): Canada earned a trip to Turkey by slipping past Dom. Republic (Fran Garcia didn't play) 80-76 for the last qualifying spot in the Americas Zone. Always a quality defensive unit anchored by a stout interior defense. Solid on the boards as well. Matt Bonner is expected to be added to a decent frontline rotation of Joel Anthony (Miami), Jesse Young & Levon Kendall. What holds this team back is a lack of playmakers since Steve Nash stopped playing internationally, which makes for a constant struggle on the offensive end. Carl English is their #1 option. English is a nice player (good shooter), but when he's the best scoring option/playmaker, you're in trouble offensively. Added some more movement to their half-court sets last summer, which helped to a degree at the FIBA Americas. Why Leo Rautins is interested in adding Jamaal Magloire to the mix, I'm not sure. Should be more concerned with adding some scoring to the mix or a true point guard. He might need to tap some of the promising young prospects from the Great White North like Tristan Thompson, Corey Joseph or Myck Kabongo. Bring Kabongo or Joseph as a back-up PG. Expect them to secure the 4th seed in Group D.

CROATIA (Group B): Next to Lithuania, might have been the biggest underachiever at '09 Eurobasket. Even though Croatia finished in 6th place, they finished 4-5 overall and played uninspired ball throughout the tourney. The players seemed to tune out Coach Repesa and his recent departure might help this team refocus. Endless supply of quality big bodies who crush the boards, though some of the bigs are slowing down, like Nikola Vujcic & Nik Prkacin. Really missed the services of swingman Marko Tomas this past summer. The PG combo of Roko Ukic & Zoran Planinic was the one consistent element for the Croats last summer. Raw talent to compete with the upper-echelon teams. Tough draw for Croatia and need to stay focused vs. Iran to grab a 4th-place finish.

GERMANY (Group A): Have to imagine the German federation is relieved to finally secure a wild card after the push Britain was getting from the NBA. The Germans only won one game at Eurobasket, but were competitive in every game with a severely undermanned unit. Coach Bauermann did a terrific job integrating a handful of newcomers into the German lineup. All of sudden, Germany looks to have a bright future after Dirk retires, with the likes of 6-10 Robin Benzing, SF Elias Harris (Gonzaga), Tim Olbrecht and PG Heiko Schaffartzik displaying tons of promise at Eurobasket. Nowitzki says he expects to be in Turkey, which automatically makes Germany playoff-caliber. No idea on the status of Chris Kaman. Could finish in 2nd place in Group A.

PUERTO RICO (Group C): Strong showing at the FIBA Americas tourney, finishing in 2nd place behind Brazil. A very deep team that likes to bomb the 3-ball. Quality playmakers in the backcourt with Carlos Arroyo, JJ Barea and Larry Ayuso likely on board next summer. Three servicable 7-footers in PJ Ramos, Dan Santiago & Ricky Sanchez. Think their Round of 16 status heavily hinges on if Yao suits up for China. If no Yao, P.R. should easily slide into 4th place in Group C. If Yao goes, it could be a tighter race for the last playoff spot.

TIER IV (Outside shot at a Sweet Sixteen playoff berth):

ANGOLA (Group A): An undersized, scrappy bunch that is never an easy out for their opponent. Made it to the Round of 16 in '06 where they pushed France to the brink, losing 68-62. Would not be stunned if they stole a spot from Australia or even Germany. Gave Germany quite a scare in 2006 in group play in a triple-OT classic.

CHINA (Group C): If Yao can't go next summer, a Round of 16 berth could be a tough get. Iran routed a Yao-less China in the Asian Championships that was played in China. Should be somewhat competitive with Yi Jianlian and Wang ZhiZhi leading the way.

IRAN (Group B): Definitely a rising squad on the int'l scene led by Memphis Grizzlies' reserve Hamad Haddadi. Were impressive in the Asian Champs., where they finished 9-0 and crushed China (with Yi Jianlian & Wang ZhiZhi) 70-52 in the finals. Getting the 4-seed in Group B will be a tough task, but could trip up Croatia if the Croats play like they did last summer.

NEW ZEALAND (Group D): Won the Oceania Zone title this summer over Australia. Doesn't mean much since the Oceania Zone set-up is a joke and Austraila brought their B-team. Very unimpressive play in their last Worlds appearance in 2006. Snuck into the playoff portion at the '06 Worlds only because they were in the weak Group B. Don't expect much from the Kiwis and should be eliminated after group play.

TIER V (Slim chance of getting past group play):
IVORY COAST; JORDAN; LEBANON; TUNISIA

Mac Court (Eugene, Oregon) Road Trip

McArthur Court (aka "Mac Court", aka "The Pit") in Eugene, Oregon, has been the home of the Oregon Ducks basketball program since it opened in 1926, and is one of the most distinctive basketball venues in the country.

This is likely to be the last full season of Oregon basketball at Mac Court, as the new Matthew Knight Arena (named for the late son of Nike founder/Oregon alum Phil Knight) is scheduled to open in December, 2010.

We took our first trip to Mac Court in February for last season's Oregon-Arizona game, and it was a hoophead's delight - a true old-school field house/barn of a venue which was called the "Best Gym in America" by Sporting News back in 2001 with reason.

With the final full season at Mac Court getting under way, we thought it was a good time to run a photo post detailing our road trip. In short, if you love the game and can get to Eugene before Mac Court closes, we highly recommend that you do so - it's an increasingly rare breed of a basketball experience.

OK, here we go. We didn't get a good external shot, so this scene-setter is from Wikipedia; all other photos are ours (please click for larger images). Surprisingly, the University of Oregon is home to three of the more distinctive sports venues in America, all in close proximity: Mac Court; Hayward Field, the most hallowed ground of American track & field, which is nearly adjacent; and Autzen Stadium, generally considered to be one of the better, and louder, places to watch college football, which is about a mile and a half away.


Mac Court consists of three decks of seats stacked right on top of one another, which provides the feel that fans are directly on top of the court. We started in the lower deck, which offered a view that was great for the game, but somewhat claustrophobic, what with the second deck hovering directly above us and cutting off much of the building from our sight:


Honestly, when we got up and walked around at halftime, and saw everything in the next photo, it was like a revelation - had no idea that anything above what's visible in the picture above was there for the whole first half:


Oregon was horrendous last season, just 2-16 in the Pac-10, so Mac Court was only half-full by February, which led to a good news/bad news situation: we didn't get the full feel of "The Pit", with the place rocking, but we did have free access to move around and check out different areas of the building.

At the beginning of the second half, we went up to the third deck, which featured this rather odd section of wooden seats, perched at a very steep angle. Two views for you:



We're betting that this sign, up near the wooden seats, was posted when the building opened in 1926:


In general, we think the coolest part of the whole experience was being up in the upper deck, looking straight down at the court. Did we mention that it was steep?:


And an end zone view from up top, up amidst the banners:


Midway through the second half, we moved down to try out the second deck, and we have to say that we preferred when Arizona ran its offense to the left...:


This next one might be our favorite photo, as we managed to capture both an example of the desk lamps used for lighting in the second deck, and also then-freshman Oregon center Michael Dunigan in mid-dunk. Dunigan, a former McDonald's All-American, displayed impressive physical gifts in producing 9 pts, 6 reb, 2 stl, 1 blk in 25 minutes (Draft Express profile). For what it's worth, Arizona won the game 87-77, as its two current NBA players, Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, combined for 49 points.


Here's a view from court level, postgame. We're idiots for not properly framing the 1939 national championship banner, which is in the upper-left of the photo:


Here's our dilemma: as much as we absolutely loved the Mac Court experience, and highly recommend it, and want to retain the experience somehow... we can understand how it's really hard to argue that this is a venue suited for the modern era, and unfortunately, it's hard to envision how it'd be possible to renovate it into one.

Here's a view of a main corridor, outside (under, that is) the lower deck. While talking at halftime in this corridor with others who were attending the game with us, some soda dripped through the lower deck directly onto the cheek of one of my cohort. Moderately disturbing.


We're sure that Oregon basketball games will lose a great deal of charm in the new arena, but we're not really sure what another remedy could be, other than trying to build a retro-feeling building a la Conseco Field House. It does appear that the new arena has a steep slope to its seats, at least, and that's always a good thing.

That said, at Mac Court, we loved that equipment like this was just sitting around and apparently being stored in the main corridor. Wanted to take it out on the court postgame and do some shooting drills:


And there you have it. Hopefully we've conveyed at least a little bit of what is one of the truly unique and charming experiences for watching big-time basketball. If you're a hoop fan, don't think twice about making the pilgrimage to Eugene before Mac Court closes - just do it. Or something like that.

Yes, Brandon Jennings Is (Already!) Laughing Last

Well, then. Prior to the draft back in June, we wrote a post entitled "Will Brandon Jennings Laugh Last?", in which we strongly argued in favor of Jennings as a prospect - we ranked him as the no. 3 prospect in the 2009 draft class (trailing only two guys who have yet to play an NBA game, Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio) at a time when his stock was plummeting. Jay Bilas ended up ranking Jennings as the 17th best prospect on draft night, and many believe Jennings would not have been selected until the 17-19 range if the Bucks had passed on him at 10.

As much as we believed in Jennings' long-term potential, we figured we'd be writing a post like this in March or April or a couple years down the road, not two freaking weeks into the young Buck's first NBA season.

Not even we thought that it would all come together so quickly, as Jennings is averaging 25.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists (24.4 PER) in the wake of his mind-blowing 55-point performance in just the seventh game of his career, against the defenseless Warriors on Saturday night.

Because we consider point guard the toughest position to master in the NBA, we were expecting Jennings to start slow and come on later in the season. And while we thought Jennings had good shooting mechanics to build upon, we certainly weren't expecting him to hit 21-39 (.539) three-pointers out of the gate after his outside-shooting struggles in Europe - that's probably been the most surprising factor in his stunning debut. (His floaters in the lane appear to be vastly improved, as well.)

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We can't lie - part of us relishes being able to write an "I told you so" post, after feeling like we were out on a relatively lonely limb back in June. (Note: folks should remember that Jonathan Givony of Draft Express was right on the mark on Jennings.) But that's not why we're writing this followup.

The point is not that we were right in our assessment of Brandon Jennings, and most NBA executives were wrong. We get some right, we get some wrong, so do the best of NBA scouts and executives, so does everyone. The point is why NBA executives were wrong on Jennings - there are some assumptions underlying the faulty evaluations on Jennings which need to change. We wrote in June that we "feel like Jennings is being questioned and moved down draft boards for a bunch of reasons completely unrelated to this question: Can he play?" It really did feel like evaluations of Jennings became more like a political topic than a basketball scouting report.

Here are a few of our thoughts on L'Affaire Jennings:

1. The Euroleague is a significantly better level of competition than U.S. college basketball. Period.

Anyone who has a rough sense of Euroleague basketball must be wondering why we even have to state something so obvious. Yet a misguided sense of college basketball exceptionalism was an undercurrent of all the incorrect Jennings evaluations.

Here's a quote from Billy Packer in a story on Yahoo! that's fairly representative of analysts who make their living off of the college game:

“The guy didn’t go over there to become a better basketball player, I wouldn’t think. If you have an opportunity to go and play for Roy Williams at the University of North Carolina, or Tom Izzo [at Michigan State], you mean to tell me that going over to some European team is going to make you a better basketball player when you have an opportunity to be taught by guys that have coached multiple NBA players?”

Yes, Billy, I do mean to tell you that Jennings went over to Europe to become a better player, and that surviving a tough adjustment developed his career better than dominating the college game would have.

A couple things that are striking about Jennings' NBA game to date are 1) his poise and 2) his ability to run the pick-and-roll. Then one needs to step back and remember that he is a not a rookie in the pro game. Jennings learned how to play a pro-style game in Italy, a pick-and-roll game, and did so against experienced, grown men in the prime of their careers, with an increasingly high talent level underlying things, as any Olympic or World Championship competition of the past decade has made crystal clear.

We wrote this in June, and believe it now more than ever:

"I believe that in time it will be shown that playing in the Euroleague developed Jennings' game better than the NCAA game would have, and that it will be yet more proof that it is not necessary to play college basketball in order to develop into an elite player."

But we understand why numerous college guys made comments tacitly denigrating Jennings' decision to thumb his nose at NCAA ball - they're ultimately just trying to protect their self-interest, which is tied in with the glory of the college game.

It's this statement, from an unnamed NBA GM in a story by Chad Ford, which still leaves our mouth agape every time we read it:

"I'm not sure how you take a kid without a real body of work that high. I know this is a weak draft, but are we really taking kids who have struggled to produce in college or Europe in the lottery? I'm all for upside, but it's ridiculous. If Jennings can't get on the floor in Italy, how does he help my team in the next couple of years? How do you take him over some really talented college kids who have proven they can play? Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry. Those guys are talented too and they have track records."

We completely understand how fans who don't follow European basketball could look at Jennings' stats in Italy and think he was a bust. But an NBA GM should understand - has to understand - the context better.

Here's the point we're trying to illustrate: it's not that the GM above is making a poor evaluation of Jennings, that happens. It's that the GM, in this quote, is betraying that he has no understanding of the larger picture of how international basketball works, which is inexcusable. And given the way that Jennings' stock dropped prior to the draft, it seems like this sentiment was the mainstream, rather than an aberration.

An NBA GM needed to be able to look at Jennings' European stats and understand that it was a much higher level of competition than NCAA ball. Check out Josh Childress' numbers for an example - he went from 12 ppg and 5 rpg on .571 FG% (.367 3PT%) in 30 mpg for Atlanta to 9 ppg and 5 rpg on .470 FG% (.158 3PT% with a shorter line) in 24 mpg in Euroleague play in his prime for Olympiakos. It's just a different style of play.

They also needed to understand that the style of play was not as conducive to Jennings' strengths as the current NBA game. One of the key reasons we rated Jennings so high was the difference in rules: the NBA interpretation of no contact allowed on the perimeter plus the defensive 3-second rule are both significant differences vs. how the game is called in Europe. In Euroleague games that we watched, we often saw Jennings get past his man, only to run into a mass of bigs clogging the painted area. Indeed, playing on a floor with more open space has really helped Jennings in the league.

Don't know too much more to say than to highly recommend the Euroleague games which are aired weekly on NBA TV or ESPN 360. We've been hooked ever since we got our first glimpse of Manu Ginobili, back in the 2002 Final Four. It's enjoyable not just to catch internationals before they hit the shores of the NBA, but also to see Americans establish their pro bonafides, as a guy like Will Bynum did at Maccabi Tel Aviv a couple years ago. Ricky Rubio is a hell of a fun watch with Barcelona, of course, and you can also catch guys who could be playing key NBA roles in the next few years, like Tiago Splitter or Nikola Pekovic.

2. Needing to see a player play in person in order to evaluate him is wildly overrated in 2009.

Is it better to see a player in person to scout him? Sure. There are things one can glean in regard to how a player carries himself, interacts with teammates and coaches, etc. in person which can't be seen on television or tape. One can gather further information about a player - as reporters Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony did regarding Jennings in Italy - by seeing practices and talking to coaches who work with him and to scouts on the ground there.

But, ultimately, is it necessary, in 2009, to see a player in person to evaluate him? Absolutely not.

The biggest crock regarding the botched evaluations of Jennings is the whole sense, voiced repeatedly, that decision-makers were not able to see Jennings in enough 5-on-5 competition. Here are some of the quotes over the last year:

Jay Bilas:

“But with [Jrue] Holiday, you can make the argument that because he played in full view of NBA decision makers, that there’s some value to that. That he’s more of a known commodity to the NBA than Jennings is. And while they may have questions about both prospects, they’ve seen him. Holiday was playing in full view, and Brandon Jennings was basically playing in blackout conditions.”

Neil Olshey, asst. GM for the Clippers:

“The decision makers, they don’t have the luxury of going to seven or eight games [in Europe] every year. The question is how much stock teams will put into workouts instead of a player’s body of work.”

Jonathan Givony, Draft Express:

"Numerous teams in the lottery have pointed out to us that they do not feel comfortable with the amount of competitive five on five action they’ve seen Jennings partake in, and that they would have a difficult time selecting him based on the body of work he’s put together up until this point."

A "veteran GM" to Chad Ford on ESPN.com, after Jennings opted not to play at the Reebok Eurocamp prior to the draft in June:

"We all came to see whether this kid can really play. I'd heard the hype, watched the video and heard various opinions from my scouts. I wanted to see how he stacked up against other top kids his age. Then he doesn't show. He sure isn't making this easy on us. You want to like the kid, but he ain't giving you a lot to go on."

This kind of rhetoric holds up if it were 1987, but it's 2009. As we wrote in June, it wasn't like Jennings was playing in the third division in Estonia, he was in the freaking Euroleague. The idea that he was "playing in blackout conditions" is patently ridiculous.

There were multiple Roma games available on NBA TV, more available on ESPN 360, and all Euroleague games were available via the Euroleague.TV online package. Furthermore, Synergy Sports offers breakdowns of European games, so we'd imagine that any GM could easily call up a substantial percentage of Jennings' minutes in Rome, itemized by possession, to his office computer right now.

Go back and watch Lottomatica Roma's game vs. Tau Ceramica - one of the top teams in Europe, closer to an NBA team than an NCAA team, featuring top internationals like Tiago Splitter, Pablo Prigioni and Igor Rakocevic - from January, and the promise in Jennings' game that we're seeing today is all right there.

Sorry, but if you can't make a judgment about whether a guy can play based on video, enhanced by the tools from Synergy Sports, in 2009, then you don't deserve to be working in a team personnel department.

Seeing a player in person is better, but it is not necessary. The idea that it is necessary is frankly condescending, to suggest that there's some sort of magic which insiders with access have that the common fan simply can't grasp.

The point is not that we were right, and they were wrong. It's that some guy in Seattle who records a few games on his DVR *can* be right. There's no way, just a few years ago, that anyone in the U.S. would have been able to see a glimpse of Jennings in Rome. Then, seeing him in person mattered, because that was the only real access available. Not now.

3. Amazingly, the Knicks probably would have been better off with Isiah making the selection on draft night.

As much as Jennings never should have slipped to no. 10, it at least appears that several of the guys taken above him can play.

The first exception is that it sure looks like the pick of Hasheem Thabeet at no. 2 was the worst pick of the 2009 draft, but that's what happens when the owner makes the pick, and Michael Heisley and his disastrous franchise are basically irredeemable at this point.

What's become increasingly apparent is that the colossally bad pick of the night was the Knicks' selection of Jordan Hill ahead of Jennings.

The Brandon Jennings we've seen in Milwaukee would have been the perfect guy to run Mike D'Antoni's show in New York. He would have been the perfect guy to bring some excitement and energy back into Madison Square Garden. Did you see the crowd in Milwaukee on Monday night? That place has been a mausoleum the last few years, but it was rocking like a college crowd in the first game following Young Money's double-nickel.

And dare we say it: Brandon Jennings would have been the perfect player to create an atmosphere in 2009-10 - on the court, in the arena, in the city - which would make the Knicks more enticing to LeBron James.

Why didn't Knicks president of basketball operations Donnie Walsh select Jennings?:

"I didn't have a good feel for his game. I went to Europe, Treviso, to see him at a draft camp and he didn't show. We brought him in here and the situation is not running up and down, 5 on 5. So going into the draft, I didn't get a good feeling."

Ah, of course, that makes sense, Donnie. You weren't able to see him play 5-on-5 in person, and geez, you've only been in basketball for 50 years, so we can't expect that you'd be able to evaluate him just by watching every minute he played on video, can we?

Walsh has also passed the buck (no pun intended!) by saying that his scouts should have argued for Jennings harder.

Alan Hahn of Newsday is a very good reporter, but we'd have to disagree with this statement in a recent story:

"Walsh explained last week that he "didn't have a good feel" for Jennings' game, which is somewhat understandable because of how little that could be judged from Jennings' limited minutes in Italy last season."

It's just not true, go back to our story from June - that was based entirely off of observations of Jennings from last season, the elements of his game were evident right there - Walsh just can't be let off the hook for this.

That's where we get back to our statement in bold above. For everything Isiah did to devastate the franchise, he has always drafted well. His nose for potential has generally been ahead of the curve, such as when he stole Tracy McGrady with the 9th pick in 1997, when guys were still wary of high-schoolers. Our gut feeling is that Isiah would have understood Jennings and his game, and would have taken him at 8. Isn't it crazy: the Knicks really probably would have been better off turning their draft over to Isiah! (As long as he wasn't allowed to make any trades, of course!)

We're working our way through Bill Simmons' The Book of Basketball, which is a rollicking good read. One of the fun sections asks "What if?" questions from throughout NBA history, such as "What if the Hawks had taken Chris Paul in the 2005 draft?", and then speculates on how things might have played out had a different course been taken.

If it turns out that LeBron James passes on the Knicks next summer, and part of his reasoning is that there's not enough promise and hope on the team's roster, don't be surprised if the biggest new "What if?" question added to a future edition of the book is "What if the New York Knicks had picked Brandon Jennings in the 2009 draft?"

What Will The NBA's Next Wave of International Players Look Like?

One of the defining characteristics of the NBA in the 2000s was the unprecedented impact of international players on the league. There were first-ever MVPs from Europe (Dirk Nowitzki) and Canada (Steve Nash), a first-ever European Finals MVP (Tony Parker), plus players who played big roles in both NBA championships and in winning gold medals in major international events in which the U.S. was toppled (Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol), as well as other All-Stars, such as Yao Ming.

Looking ahead, the interesting question is whether international players will have as much impact on the 2010s as they did in the 2000s. Certainly, there are plenty of promising young international players already in the league – under-25 guys include Spaniards Marc Gasol and Rudy Fernandez, the Italian triumvirate of Andrea Bargnani, Marco Belinelli and Danilo Gallinari, Australian Andrew Bogut, Latvian Andris Biedrins, Frenchmen Nic Batum and Rodrigue Beaubois, and Israeli rookie Omri Casspi among others. Other top prospects who have been drafted and are poised to come over in the next couple years include Spaniard Ricky Rubio (Timberwolves), Brazilian Tiago Splitter (Spurs), Montenegran Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) and Turkish center Omer Asik (Bulls).

There are enough quality ballers listed above that it’s certain internationals will continue to play key roles on NBA contenders, it’s just hard to tell if any of these young players will emerge as true stars, on the level of the players listed in the first paragraph, and exactly who they will be.

Also, we may be in line for a slight changing of the guard in terms of countries which produce NBA players. Argentina seems to have been blessed with a remarkable confluence of several NBA-worthy players who meshed together beautifully in the 2000s, but there does not appear to be another wave of top talent behind them. With the emergence of Nene and the impending entrance of Splitter, Brazil should take over the mantle as South America’s top NBA talent producer.

Given that Yi Jianlian increasingly looks like a colossal bust, one must question how much talent is on the way behind Yao Ming from China in the 2010s, considering that the talent level on the Chinese national team is pretty thin, with no major draft prospects in the immediate future.

But considering that the Chinese government is building a basketball court in every village, and that NBA basketball is widely exposed in the country, it seems like a matter of time before more Chinese prospects emerge. It’s just unclear who will follow Yao, which must be of concern to the NBA from a business perspective in the short-term.

In Europe, France and Spain and Italy should continue to be top talent producers, but Dirk appears to have been a one-hit wonder out of Germany, and traditional powers Lithuania and Serbia should re-emerge after a few years of relative drought in terms of prospects.

The only two internationals projected as top-10 picks in Draft Express’ mock drafts for 2010 and 2011 are both Lithuanian. Donatas Montiejunas, in particular, has some Dirk-like attributes and is projected as a top-5 pick in 2010, while 6-10 Jonas Valanciunas is tabbed as a top-5 prospect for 2011.

After the crash from Yugoslavia’s 2002 world championship to Serbia’s failing to qualify for the 2008 Olympics, the Serbs rebounded nicely with a young roster which won a surprising silver medal at Eurobasket 2009. Milos Teodosic and Novica Velickovic are players who could come over at some point.

Unsung country to watch: Czech Republic, as prospects Jan Vesely and Tomas Satoransky are projected as first-round picks in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

The NBA is still working on developing the talent out of Africa. David Stern has said, "We're very intently focused on Africa ... I wouldn't be surprised if we had three offices on the continent by the (2012) Olympics…. In Africa, we’re beginning to see new countries challenging the traditional powers like Angola — the Ivory Coast, Tunisia. I’ve said this before: Africa could be a continent as important to the development of players as Eastern and Western Europe combined.”

That said, Tanzanian Hasheem Thabeet nor anyone else seems poised to inhabit the giant footsteps of retired lions Olajuwon and Mutombo.

One last note is that we do expect that we’ll see the first European NBA coach sometime in the 2010s. Ettore Messina is still the favorite, especially since he has spent the last four years going to the Euroleague Final Four with CSKA Moscow, funded by prospective Nets owner Prokhorov, and previously coached for Benetton Treviso, working for current Raptors VP Mauricio Gherardini, who could become the first European NBA GM this decade, as well.

Vince Carter: Hall of Fame Legacy on the Line?

We are among many observers who have noted that Vince Carter is one of the pivotal players of the 2009-10 NBA season. We are on the side of believing that the move from Hedo Turkoglu to Carter is an upgrade for the Magic, and is a key reason that we predicted Orlando to be NBA champions in '09-10. As we noted in our season preview post, we still have concerns about Vince's leadership ability, but the beauty of his current arrangement is that he's just one of several stars, and certainly not the face of the franchise: he doesn't need to lead, he just needs to produce.

Taking a step back, Vince is one of the most interesting players to watch this season, not only because of his potential effect on the 2009-10 season, but also because he may have more on the line in terms of his career legacy than any other player in the league. Vince may well be playing for the Hall of Fame.

As much as we strongly believe in Orlando's move from Turkoglu to Carter, we have to say that we were taken aback when we noticed how high Vince ranked on Basketball Reference's Hall of Fame probability page.

The Hall of Fame probability is explained here. It's important to note that this is not a judgment on whether a player deserves to be a Hall of Famer, but rather a look at how closely a given player's accomplishments and attributes are similar to players who have made it to Springfield.

As the explanation page notes:

Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question "If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?".

Currently, Vince ranks 68th all-time, with a Hall of Fame probability of .8955, ahead of several players who have already been enshrined in Springfield. More notably, there is not a single player ahead of Carter on the list who is eligible for the Hall and has not made it. (Note that among the variables considered are points/rebounds/assists per game, so the probabilities often decrease over time.)

I guess we're surprised just because we haven't considered Vince to be Hall of Fame material. We've certainly held it against him that he flat gave up on the Raptors, and we've never considered Vince to be particularly strong in the categories of leadership or mental toughness. As we wrote in the season preview, we can't disagree with the scout who once told reporter Frank Hughes that, "I bet no player in the history of the league has gone to the locker room and come out again more than Vince Carter. In the history of the league."

On top of that, Carter's career is something of a disappointment in that his best season probably occurred at the age of 24, in 2000-01, when he posted career-highs in points (27.6) and PER (25.0) for the 47-35 Raptors - also one of the few seasons in which Carter's team reached the second round of the playoffs.

All told, we've considered Vince to be part of the Hall of the Very Good, as Peter King would say about an NFL player, but short of the Hall of Fame. Our guess is that most fans would tend to generally agree with this assessment (we're curious to know - let us know what you think in the comments).

In his recent book, Bill Simmons includes Vince Carter in his revamped Hall of Fame, as the 83rd-ranked player (out of 96), but accompanies that honor quite amusingly with a rather scathing critique that is a roundup of all the subjective reasons that Vince should not a Hall of Famer, in line with what we noted above, culminating in this:

That's one of the reasons I wanted to write this book: fifty years from now, we wouldn't want an NBA fan to flip through some NBA guide and decide that Vince Carter was a worthy basketball star. He wasn't.

We'd imagine that many fans have such conflicted feelings about Vince. We certainly do.

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Note the variables which are considered by Basketball Reference:

1. Height (in inches)
2. Last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
3. NBA points per game
4. NBA rebounds per game
5. NBA assists per game
6. NBA All-Star game selections
7. NBA MVP award shares
8. NBA championships won

Vince gets a significant boost in the probability from his All-Star selections, which may be artificial because he was voted in by the fans so often in his heyday of popularity.

- In 2002-03, Carter was voted in even though he was sidelined from Dec. 8 to Jan. 26, and likely would not have made the team as a reserve.

- In 2003-04, the Raptors ended 33-49, and Carter may not have made it without the fan votes.

- 2004-05 was the season that Carter quit on the Raptors, so there's no way in hell he would have or should have made the team without the fan votes.

Take away two of Carter's All-Star nods (and also round down his career averages to 23-5-4 to take future decline into account, which is probably generous to him), and his probability drops down to .667, in the range of some guys who are in, like Wes Unseld and Frank Ramsey, and some guys who are out, like Mitch Richmond and Tim Hardaway.

But go the other way, and add a championship to the Vince Carter resume with 8 All-Star Games and a 23-5-4 career, and his probability leaps to .937, which would jump him up to 58th all-time, in between solid Hall of Famers Tiny Archibald and Robert Parish, and ironically, very close to Paul Pierce (56th, .942), a guy who may have cemented a Springfield legacy by resurrecting his career with a championship run in 2007-08.

Would a Magic championship in 2010 do the same for Vince Carter? Championships are pretty powerful things in the minds of fans and the anonymous Hall of Fame voters. Most of the arguments against Vince are subjective ones, and we think that the sentiments of a championship would likely wash them away. With a championship, we think fans and media alike would consider Carter to be redeemed. Is there anyone else with that much at stake in terms of career legacy this season? We don't think so.

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Now for a separate question: if he plays a key role on a championship team, does Vince deserve to be a Hall of Famer? Well, let's go to another tried-and-true Basketball Reference measure: The Keltner List. They describe it as

"that tried-and-true staple of sabermetric-type analysis ever since Bill James introduced it way back in the 1985 Baseball Abstract. The format is simple: it's an inventory of yes-or-no questions designed to assess whether or not a player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. It's not numerical, nor is it strictly objective, but after going through the list you typically get a pretty good feel for the player's HoF-worthiness."

Basketball Reference has run a Keltner List for several different players on the cusp of the Hall of Fame, and they're quite fun to read.

Here's what we've got for Vince:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in basketball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in basketball?
No, sir. His best seasons were '99-00 and '00-01, when Shaquille O'Neal was clearly the best player in the game, and several others ranked above Vince, as well.

2. Was he the best player on his team?
Yes, Carter was the best player on multiple mediocre-to-good teams in Toronto, and was no worse than 1A to Jason Kidd's 1 on some mediocre-to-good teams in New Jersey.

3. Was he the best player in basketball at his position?
My initial reaction was that Carter was never close to this, but actually, in 2000-01, he was likely the best small forward in basketball. Again, it was his peak statistical year of 25.0 PER, and he was voted second-team All-NBA as a forward, with the two first team spots occupied by power forwards Duncan and Webber. Still, it was an early high-water mark, as Carter never really approached that level again.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of NBA Finals or Conference Finals?
For the sake of argument, let's say Carter has a strong performance in a Magic championship run, but assume that Dwight Howard would be Finals MVP. Carter has not appeared in a Conference Finals to date.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Jury is still out, I suppose, but the answer appears to be yes, as Vince was still a productive player last year at 32.

6. Is he the very best (eligible) basketball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No, most would say that that is Artis Gilmore.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Vince ranks 22nd in career points per game (23.5) and 36th in career PER (21.4), in a range where all surrounding players have made the Hall. Taking into account career decline, his averages should move into an area where about half the guys make it, half don't.

That said, Carter is currently 59th in total points (18,300) - one can expect him to move over 20,000. Every eligible player at 20,790 or higher has made it.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
The Basketball Reference Keltner Lists have used the Hall of Fame Probability to answer this question. The various variables for Carter regarding that metric were discussed above.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Again, as discussed above, all of the subjective measures for Carter are decidedly negative: quit on the Raptors, considered to lack in toughness, and leadership abilities were often questioned not only by fans/media but also teammates.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
Hard to get apples-to-apples here with Vince as a hybrid 2-3. As of now, as far as shooting guards, I'd probably rate Carter above Mitch Richmond and below Sidney Moncrief (Simmons ranks Sid 73rd). At small forward, Bernard King clearly gets the nod above Carter, and Mark Aguirre is in the mix, too. Chris Mullin - whom Simmons ranks one notch above Carter at 82 - is maybe the closest comparison. This is perhaps the question where an impressive 2010 championship run would really help Vince stand out.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
I would consider Carter's 2000-01 season (27.6 / 5.5 / 3.9) to be very good but short of MVP-caliber. He finished 10th in MVP voting in 2000 and 11th in 2001. That's as close as he got.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
Again, the complexity of the All-Star issue as it relates to Vince was addressed above. Vince has 8 All-Star Games, and interestingly, the threshold for a definitive Hall of Famer seems to be 9. Give him the 6 that he probably deserves, and Carter falls a little short.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win an NBA title?
I think that this has been proven to clearly be a "no".

14. What impact did the player have on basketball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Was his college and/or international career especially noteworthy?
Quite clearly, a main impact that Vince Carter has had is that he has unquestionably been one of the most spectacular dunkers in basketball history, with several memorable in-game dunks which were truly breathtaking - including maybe the greatest dunk in basketball history over Freddy Weis at the 2000 Olympics - and also one of the most electrifying dunk contest performances ever in 2000.

The Verdict:
This is why we do the Keltner. After going through this exercise, I really do believe that Vince Carter is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, and I probably lean against his candidacy as of now. He really may well need a championship to get over the top.

2009-10 NBA Season Predictions/Storylines: We're Picking the Orlando Magic

Happy Opening Day, everyone. The League is back, rejoice.

As we try to predict the 2009-10 NBA season, the key word to us is "risk". In our season predictions post last October, our first storyline to watch was: "Dawn of a Dynasty: Just How Good Can The Lakers Be?"

We believed that L.A. was well-positioned for a 2009-11 threepeat, and nothing that happened all the way through the championship run in June changed our mind.

Then, the Lakers went and essentially exchanged Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. Why add the risk when you are the favorites? Adding Artest made sense in Houston, where the Rockets needed to take a roll of the dice to become championship contenders, as they weren't talented enough without Ron-Ron.

We understand that one could question whether it's Ariza's agent or the Lakers who are responsible for the player's departure, but the reality is that L.A. has added a good deal of risk to its equation, after inserting a huge unknown quantity to what was previously an odds-on favorite to repeat. All we keep asking is why why why? Why add the risk?

Ron Artest has never shown that he has the mental toughness to make it through a successful playoff run. He's already derailed a championship contender in Indiana. You know about the Brawl at Auburn Hills, which sunk the 2004-05 Pacers, who had a chance to be the best team in the league that year. But don't forget that he also crushed the Pacers' chances in 2003-04, with a fourth-quarter flagrant foul which allowed the eventual champion Pistons to prevail in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now we're supposed to believe that Artest has matured because he didn't try to physically harm Kobe Bryant, merely making contact when he was ejected in Game 2 of the Lakers-Rockets series? Sure, by Ron's standards, that's improvement, but it still falls short of the mental toughness needed to become a champion.

Couple that with a need to dominate the ball at times and a shot selection that can be LOL bad - for a guy who needs to accept a role as a fourth or even fifth option - and we'll believe that Ron Artest helps the Lakers when we see it. We definitely think that the Lakers can repeat, we just think there's too much risk for us to predict they will.

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So, who is our choice for champion? We believe, like many others, that there are five true championship contenders in the mix - Lakers, Spurs, Cavs, Celtics, Magic - and we ended up picking the team which has the least amount of risk.

The age (and, by extension, health) of the Spurs and Celtics worries us, and we have concerns about how the new pieces will fit in Cleveland - not to mention our concerns that the Cavs offense could revert to stagnation after assistant coach John Kuester took the head job in Detroit.

The team which has the least risk to us - the team we feel most certain about - is the Orlando Magic, and they are our choice to win the 2009-10 NBA championship.

The Orlando roster is incredibly deep, which allows them to play essentially any style - big or small, offense- or defense-oriented. It starts with the talent of four potential All-Stars in Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis.

If you want to go small, stick in tough defender Mickael Pietrus (who can hit the three) or sharpshooter J.J. Redick (who defended surprisingly well at times in the playoffs). If you want to go big, turn to athletic Brandon Bass, or maybe the best backup center in the game in Marcin Gortat. Or maybe spread the floor with 6-10 shooter Ryan Anderson. Don't forget about scrappy glue guy Matt Barnes to bring some energy and fill in the gaps. And then there's good PG depth with vets Jason Williams and Anthony Johnson.

It's all orchestrated by Stan Van Gundy, whom we thought deserved to be Coach of the Year last season for having the no. 1 team in the league in defensive efficiency, even though the starting forwards were Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.

Where are the weaknesses on this team? Well, for many, there is the assumption that the Magic have been weakened by essentially exchanging Turkoglu for Carter. Count us in the camp who think that's crazy - Carter is a better player and this is an upgrade. Look, we understand issues that people have with Vince - we've never really forgiven him for quitting on the Raptors, and we can't really disagree with the scout who once told reporter Frank Hughes that, "I bet no player in the history of the league has gone to the locker room and come out again more than Vince Carter. In the history of the league."

In fact, in 2006, when there were rumors that Vince would sign in Orlando in the summer of 2007, we were skeptical and wrote this:

I simply don't believe that Vince is a max-quality player is terms of being a guy who is a team leader with the mental toughness to carry a team deep into the playoffs. On such a young team, he would have to take on such a role.

We haven't changed our mind about Vince; what's changed is the way this team has developed - Carter doesn't have to be a team leader, nor does he have to carry the team. Howard is the undisputed face of the franchise, Nelson is the team leader, and Lewis is another productive player. That's the beauty of it: the pressure is off of Vince, he just needs to produce, he doesn't need to lead. And we think that he is, clearly, a more productive player than Turkoglu, still viable even as he is about to turn 33.

We're taking Magic over Lakers.

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Storylines we're most interested in:
- Who will be the "first to 5"? / How will the Big 5's moves work out?
During his draft-night interview, Shaq talked about being the "first to 5", a reference to the fact that he, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan have all won four championships. They were the best three players of the 2000s, and now they are members of three of the five championship contenders - it doesn't really get more elemental than that.

In general, it'll be most interesting simply to see how the provocative moves from the arms race of those five teams - Lakers (Artest), Celtics (Rasheed, Marquis Daniels), Spurs (Jefferson, McDyess, Blair), Magic (Carter, Bass, Barnes, Anderson) and Cavs (Shaq, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, Powe) - pan out this season.

- Young bigs in the West
We mentioned it as one of our storylines of the 2010s in general, but the development of Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum could be a crucial x-factor in the 2009-10 season as well.

Both players were reported to look markedly better in the preseason. An improved Bynum could be enough to offset any crazy that might arise from Ron-Ron. An improved Oden could accelerate the Blazers' timeline, and turn the Big 5 championship contenders into a Big 6.

- Emerging from the cesspool of the West
Last year's Western Conference was weighed down by some terrible teams at the bottom, yet several of these teams should either be on the rise (Oklahoma City, LA Clippers) and/or have some of the most interesting young players to watch (Golden State, Minnesota, even Sacramento). And then there's the Grizz, who will be fascinating to watch as they try to share the rock among eight gunners.

- Rookie point guards to watch
2009 offered what appears to be a weak draft class overall, with the notable exception of the point guards. Even with Ricky Rubio staying in Spain, it's a fascinating collection of players with wildly diverse playing styles, with Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson, and Brandon Jennings plus Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans expected to get some run at the point. And don't sleep on young Rodrigue "Roddy Buckets" Beaubois in Dallas, who impressed in summer league with freakish athleticism. While it takes time to develop at the PG at the NBA level, it should be fun to see which players emerge as keepers.

- The LeBron Narrative
We said it last year, and we'll say it again:

The question is fairly definitive to the course of the NBA in the 2010s: just how great will LeBron be? Just how far up the ladder of all-time greats will he go?

After an MVP season and an insane 37.4 PER playoff performance in 2008-09, it's clear that there is essentially no limit to how high LeBron can go. The last piece is, of course, a championship. Don't forget that MJ didn't win his first until age 28. LeBron turns 25 on Dec. 30.

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Here are The Painted Area's 2009-10 NBA season predictions, with summaries by Jay Aych:

WEST
1. L.A. Lakers
2. Portland
3. San Antonio
4. Dallas
5. Denver
6. Utah
7. New Orleans
8. Phoenix

-First Round: Lakers over Suns, Blazers over Hornets, Spurs over Jazz, Mavs over Nuggets
-Conf. Semis: Lakers over Mavs, Spurs over Blazers
-Conf. Finals: Lakers over Spurs

Summary: The Lakers are on a tier in the West all by themselves and could make a run at 65 wins if they can stay relatively healthy (physically & mentally). We'll take the Blazers to edge out the Spurs for 2nd because of a younger, deeper roster and Pop's propensity to sacrifice some wins in the reg. season to conserve his vets, with S.A. turning the tables in the playoffs.

Dallas and Denver both have the goods to make runs at the respective division titles, and both teams should only finish a few games out of first place. Expect Dallas to be a better defensive club with Carlisle having a 2nd training camp with this team under his belt. No doubt Dallas should crush the glass with above-average rebounders on the perimeter.

The Jazz & Hornets are pretty tight in our minds - where they could change seeds depending on getting players back in the lineup. Utah is dealing with a depleted wing rotation with CJ Miles, Korver and Harpring ailing. N.O. fans must be a little skittish considering Okafor's questionable status. The Hornet wing rotation has a lot to prove as well.

We were leaning toward the Clips to edge the Suns for the 8th spot, but with the last-minute news of Griffin's bum knee, we moved back to PHX. Suns can probably pile up 45 wins in the reg. season playing their run/gun style, though we don't see any improvements on the defensive end, where they were horrid last year. The Suns should get chewed up in the interior and on the boards just like old times.

EAST
1. Orlando
2. Cleveland
3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. Washington
6. Philadelphia
7. Chicago
8. Miami

-First Round: Magic over Heat, Cavs over Bulls, Celtics over Sixers, Hawks over Wizards
-Conf. Semis: Magic over Hawks, Cavs over Celtics
-Conf. Finals: Magic over Cavs

-NBA Finals: Magic over Lakers
-MVP: LeBron James, Cavaliers
-Rookie of the Year: Tyreke Evans, Kings (last-minute change due to injury - sorry, Blake)

Summary: Obviously a big drop-off from the Big 3 to 4th. Each of these three teams should easily win its division. Went with Orlando because they might be the deepest team in the NBA, and have 12 guys who can play meaningful minutes. Placed Boston in the 3rd slot because they have the most question marks of the Big 3, considering four of their top six players are 32 years or older, with KG coming back from the knee injury. Though, the Cavs have some issues to sort out with Delonte West's status. And don't let the playoff performance fool you, this team is still a very capable defensive unit. They might struggle with pick/roll when Shaq on the floor, but overall this team has been rock-solid defensively the last few years.

Things get a little blurry after the top three seeds in the East. Feel pretty comfortable that the Hawks are basically as good as last season, which should be good enough for 4th place. The Wizards' collection of raw offensive talent would be potent in almost any coach's hands. You let Flip Saunders tinker with this talent, and there is a good chance you will have one of the best offensive teams in the league. Now the big question is whether Saunders can make the Wizards into at least a middling defensive unit.

Adding Kapono is a step in the right direction for the Sixers, but this team still does not spread the floor well enough. Having a healthy Brand back is not quite as exciting when you realize Elton will likely have extra defenders in his lap with Iggy, Young and Lou Williams on the perimeter. The cuts and movement built into Ed Jordan's offense will help get a few desperately needed buckets, but I still expect a fair amount of ragged play in the half-court offense for Phillly. They will need to push pace once again to get easy buckets. Do expect the defense and rebounding to be solid, which should let Philly hover around the .500 mark.

The last two spots could be had by either Chicago, Miami, Toronto, Detroit or Indy. Miami is a solid defensive unit that can produce TOs, but offensive firepower falls off mightily after Wade. Beasley needs to be locked in early, especially on the offensive end. If Wade has to sit for even 7-8 games this team's playoffs chances take a huge hit because Miami won't be able to score. Raptors can spread the floor as well as any team in the NBA, sometimes playing with five guys with range out to at least 20 feet. The offense could be fun to watch this year and should not be the problem for the Raps. Where we're reticent about Toronto is on the defensive end--they project to be rather lousy, near the bottom in the East. We'll see if Coach Triano can squeeze a middling defense out this roster. Highly doubt it.

Let's get it on. Tip this baby off!

TrueHoop Network 2009-10 Preview:10 NBA Questions for the 2010s

• More Painted Area 2009-10 Previews:
NBA Season (Orlando FTW) | Basketball Books (20+ books!)
• NBA Decade 2000s Review:
Players (Duncan is MVP) | Teams (Lakers are Team of Decade)

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At the dawn of a new decade, we take a stab at some key questions which could define how the NBA’s story of the 2010s gets written, and what the league might look like over the next decade.

1. Where will LeBron James be?

Let’s not mess around here. There is one question that stands far above all others: What team will LeBron be playing for? Power in the East, and possibly the league overall, hangs in the balance.

Smart money still says it’ll be Cavs or Knicks, with the Nets perhaps back in the mix if an infusion of Russian cash can jump start the proposed move to Brooklyn.

Would LBJ be less likely to leave his home region if he delivered its first pro sports championship since 1964? Or would he be more likely?

For presumed contenders Cleveland and New York, where LeBron signs could determine whether their franchise spends its 2010s springtimes in pursuit of becoming the team of the decade, or the right combo of lottery ping-pong balls in Secaucus.

2. How will Greg Oden/Andrew Bynum develop?

Two enigmatic 21-year-old centers –- Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum -– may end up being the biggest X-factors in determining the balance of power in the West in the 2010s.

Both players have the potential to the own the painted area defensively, yet both also have serious questions about whether they can regain and retain the health of their knees.

If Oden can own the lane on D, Portland could enjoy a long run atop the Western Conference in the middle part of the decade. If not, the 2010s Blazers could resemble their early-‘90s edition -- full of talent, but not quite enough to get all the way over the hump.

Does Bynum have the mindset to bring the defensive effort every night (L.A. was 29-3 in 2008-09 when he blocked two shots or more)? The Lakers figure to be top contenders in both 2010 and 2011, but how long their championship window extends beyond that depends upon the development of Bynum and….

3. How will high-school-to-pros players age?

As the first wave of players who jumped from high school to the NBA enters their 30s, we are entering somewhat uncharted territory. Will an extra workload in their early years come back to shorten their careers on the back end? Or are modern training regimens enough to offset the NBA odometer readings?

The most fascinating player to watch will be Kobe Bryant, as he often is. At age 31, he has already played 948 regular-season games plus another 175 playoff games.

Kobe’s maniacal dedication to conditioning is well-documented and could delay the effects of aging. For a player who has often been accused of aping Michael Jordan’s mannerisms, it’ll be interesting to see if Kobe redefines his game a la MJ, by moving more into the low post in his later years.

If he can stay productive into his mid-30s, then perhaps L.A.’s championship window will extend past the first couple years of the decade.

4. Will Kevin Durant stay in Oklahoma?

In attempts to salve the wound of the Sonics’ departure, Seattleites have tossed plenty of insults in the direction of Oklahoma City, including some variation of this: “Enjoy Kevin Durant while you have him, because there’s no way he’s staying in Oklahoma once he’s a free agent.”

This summer, we started to hear the first musings that KD might consider jumping to his hometown Wizards in 2012. Here’s the only issue with all this speculation: Kevin Durant has given every indication that he is perfectly happy with the Thunder.

Thunder GM Sam Presti seems to be doing a masterful job of rebuilding his roster. Still, retaining Durant is a must for Oklahoma City to have serious championship aspirations. If they keep him, don’t be surprised if we see some titanic Thunder-Blazers matchups in the Western Conference Finals throughout the middle part of the decade. How would the NBA feel about potential TV ratings for such matchups? That’s another question for another list….

5. Is Daryl Morey the vanguard or an aberration?

The use of advanced-statistical analysis in NBA front offices took a quantum leap in the 2000s, but only the Rockets went the full Moneyball route and turned their the GM job over to a stat geek in Daryl Morey. By and large, the ex-jocks still run the show, and the objective-analysis guys are there to complement the efforts.

This kind of set up is likely to remain the conventional wisdom… but if Morey can deliver a title or even conference championship to Houston, then maybe we’ll see a full-scale revolution in how NBA front offices are run instead of just an evolution.

So, while the role of cutting-edge stats is certain to continue to grow in front offices over the next decade, a factor which may contribute to the rate of growth is an age-old sporting concern: player health. Namely, are Yao Ming’s feet are destined for chronic injury like Bill Walton’s, or can his career be repaired as 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ has been?

Given his size and shooting touch, Yao figures to be a player who should age well … if he can stabilize his feet. Coupling Yao as a reliable cornerstone with GM Morey’s personnel acumen would likely make the Rockets a player in the West for a good chunk of the 2010s … and allow Morey disciples to occupy GM chairs around the league sooner rather than later.

6. Will Florida decide the East in the early 2010s?

The Sunshine State matchup of Orlando-Miami could be a key intraconference rivalry in the early part of the upcoming decade. The Magic have loaded up -- few teams can match their depth and it’s all anchored by a superstar who turns 24 in December in Dwight Howard, so the window should be open for a few years.

Meanwhile, down in South Florida, the Heat have positioned themselves more quietly, but ESPN Insider John Hollinger says that Miami might be “the biggest winner of them all” based on the projections for a shrinking salary cap in 2010-11.

As Hollinger wrote: “[The Heat] have virtually no money on the books beyond this season and could add one max contract and another fairly expensive star, all while keeping Dwyane Wade.”

There are plenty of question marks in Miami, for sure, but don’t be surprised if the Heat vault back to the top of the conference sooner than you think.

7. Which teams could get game-changing new owners?

If we had written a similar piece ten years ago, and told you that the Dallas Mavericks were about to be one of the premier franchises of the 2000s, you would have laughed us off heartily. They won average of 24.6 games per season in the ‘90s, and were considered a laughingstock as well as one of the least-likely destinations for free agents.

Then, on January 15, 2000, Mark Cuban bought the team and everything changed. Dallas won 54.8 games/season in the 2000s, and came oh-so-close to a title in 2006. The Mavericks are now a first-class franchise that’s a highly attractive landing spot for players around the league. Ownership matters.

What teams have the potential for impactful ownership changes? While the Nets, Clippers, Bulls and Wizards are all intriguing candidates, our focus fell primarily on a franchise which, early signs suggest, may be headed for an all-time season of chaos and dysfunction in 2009-10: the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors have retained a rabid fan base despite a long period of futility and mismanagement at the hands of owner Chris Cohan. Whispers out of the Bay Area are that Cohan may be open to a sale, and one would think that there are some Cuban-style activist owners in Silicon Valley waiting in the wings. Don’t forget that the Warriors actually have a deep collection of under-25 talent, though if past performance is any indication, Cohan & co. will find a way to jettison these players for little in return. Still: keep your head up, Bay Area. Things can change faster than you think.

As far as teams which could move in the other direction with a potential ownership change? Well, don’t sleep on the Los Angeles Lakers, where 76-year-old Jerry Buss has been one of the shrewdest owners in all of sports in guiding the franchise to nine championships since purchasing the team in 1979. Buss’s children Jeanie and Jimmy have long been groomed to inherit leadership roles, but it remains to be seen if the two can co-exist in the top role, and if they have Dad’s golden touch. Ownership matters.

8. What will the new collective bargaining agreement look like? Will there be more revenue sharing? A hard cap?

The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is set to expire following the 2010-11 season. With talk that the NBA will seek dramatic changes in the wake of the Great Recession, the next CBA could have a substantial impact on what happens on the hardwood.

All of the presumed 2009-10 contenders -- Lakers, Spurs, Magic, Cavs, Celtics -- will be over the luxury tax. As currently structured, the NBA is becoming a league in which teams who can afford big payrolls have an increasingly big advantage.

The NBA’s current revenue-sharing plan is not nearly as extensive as the NFL’s, but David Stern told the Sports Business Journal this summer that he had “begun working … quite assiduously to assure that there is more revenue sharing. I am going to reach agreement with my owners.” There have also been rumblings that the NBA may even push for a hard salary cap and a more punitive luxury-tax structure.

Any developments that level the economic playing field would work in favor in smaller-market teams. It certainly seems like the league will at least move in this direction, which could aid the long-term championship aspirations of teams like Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Utah or Orlando.

9. What franchise moves may occur?

After not experiencing a franchise move from 1985-2001, the NBA oversaw three relocations in the 2000s, including the donnybrook that turned the Seattle SuperSonics into the Oklahoma City Thunder. What franchise moves might we see in the upcoming decade (not including the prospective Nets move to Brooklyn)?

Given the tepid fan interest in Charlotte and Memphis, it’s logical to think that the Bobcats and Grizzlies are the prime candidates to be on the move once the terms of arena leases loosen up in a few years.

Other markets to watch include Sacramento and Milwaukee, which have arena concerns, and New Orleans and Indiana, small markets which may struggle to generate sufficient revenue.

Where might the potential new homes be? With subpar economic conditions possibly extending well into the new decade, cities with viable arenas already in place have a huge advantage, leaving Kansas City, St. Louis, Vancouver, Anaheim and San Jose ahead of otherwise prime contenders like Seattle, Las Vegas and San Diego.

Could we see moves by the Grizzlies back to Vancouver, and the Kings back to Kansas City this decade? Unlikely, but no crazier than suggesting in 1999 that the Sonics would be in Oklahoma within a decade.

10. Who are the new young stars who will emerge?

Who will be the new All-Stars in the later part of the 2010s? For starters, look at the point-guard position, where there’s a crazy amount of potential coming right behind the current class of under-25 point guards like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose and Monta Ellis.

Ricky Rubio, Russell Westbrook, Jonny Flynn and Brandon Jennings are all under-21 PGs who could be headliners at the 2017 All-Star Game, but incoming Kentucky freshman John Wall (frontrunner to be the no. 1 pick in the 2010 draft) might end up being better than all of them. He has the lightning quickness of Jennings/Flynn, but in a 6-4 frame. None other than Kevin Durant tweeted this summer that “John Wall is the quickest player I've ever seen with the ball.”

Another prospect to watch down the road is New Jersey prep Michael Gilchrist, a 6-7 swingman who is considered by many scouts to be the best player in all of high school hoops as a junior. Who knows, maybe Gilchrist will lead off question 1 in 2019 when NBA fans try to gaze into the crystal ball for the 2020s.

Bonus questions:
11. Will CP3 be the KG of the 2010s?

Chris Paul has already established himself as a player likely to end up in the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest point guards of all time. However, as noted above, it remains to be seen if New Orleans will have the resources to compete going forward.

All told, it looks like the script could end up resembling Kevin Garnett’s experience in Minnesota: CP3 does yeoman work to carry a subpar supporting cast into the playoffs, but just doesn’t have enough help to get New Orleans out of the first round, year after year, until we start forgetting just how good he is. Then, maybe in, say, 2016, things erode to the point where Paul gets traded elsewhere in order to truly compete for his ring.

We’re sorry to write this, New Orleans, really, we’re pulling for you. It’s just hard to see how this turns out well for CP3 in the long-term – enjoy him while you’ve got him.

12. Will the 2012 London Olympics be a game-changer for England/Europe?

David Stern continues to insist that a European Division is on the NBA's radar, though likely to postdate his tenure. It still seems like there are enormous intractable logistical issues around the subjects of travel or start times of potential playoffs/Finals games, among others.

Still, if unlikely European expansion does occur this decade, expect the 2012 London Olympics to be a tipping point. Because England is the most compatible European country to the U.S. in terms of language and culture, mobilizing the London market for NBA basketball is essential. London has a state-of-the-art arena and it’s in a sports-mad nation, but Britain has been largely indifferent to basketball to date.

That said, London has sold out NBA preseason games the last couple years. Maybe a strong Olympic showing for Luol Deng and the home team, plus the entertainment value of LeBron, Kobe, CP3 and friends in town could help push hoops over the top.

13. Who will be NBA commissioner in 2019?

Before we go, we’d be remiss if we didn’t offer one question about The Big Kahuna himself, David Stern. The commissioner is 67 years old and celebrated his 25th year in office in 2009. He said to Sports Illustrated’s Jack McCallum that “There won’t be a 35th [anniversary],” so it’s logical to assume that one of the most influential commissionerships in the history of American sports will end in the coming decade.

It’s been something of a parlor game in league circles for several years to speculate on who might become the next commish. The only thing clear is that the race should be wide open, much like the NBA should be as a whole in the 2010s.

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• More Painted Area 2009-10 Previews:
NBA Season (Orlando FTW) | Basketball Books (20+ books!)
• NBA Decade 2000s Review:
Players (Duncan is MVP) | Teams (Lakers are Team of Decade)