Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Will Brandon Jennings Laugh Last?

I have watched Brandon Jennings play about four times this season for Lottomatica Roma, via the Euroleague Game of the Week on NBA TV.

Considering that statistics and reports out of Rome have indicated that Jennings has had an erratic year as a rookie 19-year-old, I've been surprised at how impressed I've been by his play.

Given the way that NBA rules are currently structured to give an advantage to speed on the perimeter, I consider Brandon Jennings to be the no. 3 prospect in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Jennings is extremely quick with the ball, he can finish at the basket in traffic at 6-2, and also has excellent court vision. He is reminiscent of a Tony Parker- or Aaron Brooks-type player in terms of speed with the ball, though I would say Jennings is a better passer than those players, but not as good of a shooter. Outside shooting is a big weakness for Jennings right now (he made just 23% of his three-pointers on the season), but I do think he has a pretty good stroke to work with.

He also doesn't yet have an effective floater or general craftiness inside like Parker or Brooks, though he does have a sheer explosion at the rim, even with a slight build (approx. 170 lbs.), that neither of those players have. I saw him score over 7-0 Tiago Splitter, one of the best defensive centers in the world, by impressively elevating and taking a drive right into Splitter's chest and scoring.

Another "con" point, per se, that I'd note is that Jennings hasn't played a pure point guard in the games I watched from Italy, it was more of a motion offense/point-guard-by-committee deal. But again, I see Jennings as more of a Parker/Brooks-style guy than a classic point man, and geez, he certainly played at least as much PG as Jrue Holiday did at UCLA, and Holiday is moving up the charts rapidly.

Every time I saw Jennings, he really competed on the defensive end - his quickness allowed him to be a pest even if his inexperience caused him to struggle in the pick-and-roll. As much as anything, I was impressed at how professional the kid was, at how mature he looked - there was no pouting, no self-indulgent individualism on display.

What I saw through the television was consistent with what Jonathan Givony reported in his excellent story on Jennings from Rome last month:
    Gone is the brash, arrogant teenager with the Kid ’N Play style flat-top who dominated the ball in absolute fashion and looked first and foremost for his own shot, his stats and the ultimate highlight play. In his place is a much more mature, respectful young man, always cheering on his teammates, showing great body language and painstakingly trying to do what his coaches ask of him, almost to a fault at times.

    In the second quarter, Jennings comes up with a steal and has a three-on-two transition opportunity. Not seeing the angle he was looking for, he pulls the ball out, waits for his teammates to run down the floor and calls a play, to the shock of everyone in attendance who had watched him play in America. "The Brandon Jennings of old would have never passed up that opportunity," the Director of Player Personnel sitting next to us points out while nodding his head. "Gotta limit those turnovers" Jennings explains to us afterward. "My job is to be a pass-first point guard."
What I saw was a kid who was making the most of an outstanding educational opportunity in how to play professional basketball, against grown men in the rigors of the best competition outside the NBA.

As Jennings has tweeted:
    it has been a great experience even though i don't play a lot. I understand the pro game. I've gotten Better.... I was hooping with Grown Men Everyday, Im Mentally Strong so I can go through anything!
*****************************

This is certainly a tough draft to evaluate - I consider there to be five players with the potential to be stars at the NBA level:
    Blake Griffin
    Ricky Rubio
    Brandon Jennings
    Tyreke Evans
    DeMar DeRozan
Now, it's admittedly a weak draft, and out of those five, Griffin is the only one close to a sure thing. The other four all have question marks, for sure, with DeRozan being especially hard to peg - he seems like he could fall anywhere on the spectrum between Vince Carter and Gerald Green.

Jennings was widely considered to be the best player in the high-school class of 2008 - not only have I seen nothing which would make me change that evaluation, but rather I think Jennings has developed better against the tougher professional competition of the Euroleague than his classmates did in the NCAA.

Jennings tweeted this: i think if anybody went before me in the 08 class ill be kinda mad! i would really be on Kobe stuff then. lol!!!!

I agree. He should be the top player drafted from the class of '08, and, depending upon team need, I think that only Griffin and Rubio should be taken ahead of him, period. I will take Jennings over Thabeet and Jordan Hill, whom I think are insufficiently skilled, and James Harden, whom I think is insufficiently athletic, to be stars at the next level.

Fellow Class-of-'08 Angeleno Jrue Holiday from UCLA is an interesting prospect - he has better size (6-4, 200) than Jennings and is considered to be an excellent defender with a high basketball IQ. I rate Jennings higher, however, in large part because I think Holiday has displayed a complete inability to create offense for himself. I know he was in a tough position at UCLA in sharing the backcourt with PG Darren Collison, but I just didn't see any ability to create offense from Holiday.

*****************************

Statistically, Jennings certainly does not look good - John Hollinger has a formula for translating Euroleague stats to the NBA and the translated numbers for Jennings in the NBA, per-40 minutes, look like this: 11.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.3 ast, .341 FG%.

Pretty ugly, especially that shooting percentage, and Hollinger's formula usually works pretty well, but look back at the link above - one big miss he had was with Nicolas Batum, who was just 19 in the Euroleague, like Jennings. Hollinger projected a dismal 8.89 PER for Batum's rookie campaign in the NBA, and the young Frenchman ended up significantly better, at a 12.92 PER as a starter for a 54-win team. That leads me to believe that Hollinger's formula may underestimate the significant natural improvement that a player achieves at such a young age - from 19 to 20 - so I'm not terribly concerned about Jennings in this regard.

*****************************

OK, so I've stated my opinion and tried to make a case for Jennings reasonably, but really all of this is just preamble to my real point: What on Earth is going on with the mainstream evaluation and perception of Brandon Jennings?

First, you have the college basketball apologists, who crack me up. There is Jay Bilas on the draft lottery broadcast - OK, so he has Thabeet ranked ahead of Rubio, fine, but Jennings is his no. 12 prospect?! Behind Jonny Flynn and Eric Maynor? Are you kidding me?

As Jennings tweeted: Bilas probably going off STATS! And he's a COllege guy anyways! So I knew that was coming! DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

And then there was the unprovoked frontal assault that Len Elmore unleashed during the McDonald's All-American Game, insinuating not only that Jennings had made the wrong decision by going to Europe instead of the NCAA, but also that there were "grumblings" from Jennings that he regretted his decision. This was especially rich considering that, just two weeks prior, Jennings had very confidently stated, "This is the best decision I’ve made so far" in an interview from Rome with Bryant Gumbel on HBO's Real Sports.

*****************************

OK, but those are college guys, who make their living off the college game. The NBA personnel guys can see through all the noise and evaluate Jennings rationally, right?

Well, here is a note that Givony posted on DraftExpress yesterday:
    There is a growing sense in NBA circles that Brandon Jennings may be making a mistake by passing up the Reebok Eurocamp in Treviso next week in favor of participating in private NBA workouts. Numerous teams in the lottery have pointed out to us that they do not feel comfortable with the amount of competitive five on five action they’ve seen Jennings partake in, and that they would have a difficult time selecting him based on the body of work he’s put together up until this point.

    NBA teams were not allowed to scout Jennings in high school, and many saw their scouting trips to Italy this year come up empty as they only were able to see him play for a few minutes at a time, often at the shooting guard position.
In a chat on Tuesday, Chad Ford said: "I think [that not playing in Treviso] will hurt him because teams aren't going to be able to get a feel for certain things in a workout that they would in five-on-five play."

To all of this, I say: are you kidding? To the suggestion that teams have apparently voiced that they haven't seen Jennings in enough "competitive five-on-five action".... Well, I'm sorry, but I have to go into John McEnroe voice and say: YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!

Honestly, it's not like the guy has been playing in the 3rd division in Estonia; he's been in the freaking Euroleague, the most competitive basketball league outside the NBA, and the Italian League, one of the world's best domestic leagues!

I've seen Jennings four times my own damn self, and just the other day I finished watching him in a game against Tau Ceramica, one of the top clubs in Europe, in a game I had saved on my DVR from January. I watched him battle against Pablo Prigioni, the starting point guard for the Argentina national team, who has one of the highest basketball IQ's in the world. He abused Jennings with his savvy on the pick-and-roll, but on the other end, he had absolutely no chance of keeping Jennings in front of him.

As mentioned above, I watched Jennings take it right to Tiago Splitter, an excellent shotblocker at 7-0, at the rim. This guy would be the starting center for the Spurs if not for his contract - San Antonio could desperately use his youth and athleticism inside, and geez, Cleveland could have used the guy last week given their feckless interior D.

Tau also has Igor Rakocevic, one of the top scoring guards in Europe, rumored to possibly be coming over to Houston for next season. You're telling me this competition is not sufficient enough to evaluate Jennings? Are you kidding?

Honestly, if NBA personnel departments can't figure out how to find meaningful five-on-five footage of Jennings, they should be fired en masse. Can you people not figure out how to program a DVR for the Euroleague Game of the Week on NBA TV? Can you not figure out how to sign up for ESPN360.com, which had even more Roma games, or the Euroleague.TV product online, which had all the games? Do you not have an account with Synergy Sports, who does European games as well?

I'm sorry that you folks didn't get to see him in person, but there is a significant amount of Jennings' body of work against top competition which is readily available.

*****************************

So now, Jennings is slipping in mock drafts. Givony had Jennings at 4 after seeing him in Rome, but now he has dropped him to 7 [note: Jennings is down to 13 on DraftExpress as of 6/4], with this note:
    Should Jennings slip past Golden State at 7, he may be in for somewhat of a tumble on draft night, as players such as Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday appear to be the next point guards on most teams’ boards, and a franchise like Indiana could opt for a more experienced player such as Ty Lawson or Eric Maynor.
Ford has dropped Jennings all the way to 14 on the mock draft he compiles based on conversations with NBA personnel. I love these notes that have been added as part of Jonny Flynn's rise up the mocks above Jennings:
    "A number of GMs said Flynn gave the best interview of any of the prospects. His personal charisma seems to be helping him close the sale."

    "I thought they'd be taking a serious look at Brandon Jennings here, and they probably will, but Flynn has the leadership and heart that the Warriors desperately need. Jennings is a project who is much farther away."
You want heart, and maybe some mental toughness? How about this? How about a kid who grew up in Compton and then went to fricking Rome to play against grown men?!

All of this is to say that I feel like Jennings is being questioned and moved down draft boards for a bunch of reasons completely unrelated to this question: Can he play?

*****************************

So, now, this is the funny thing to me.... Today, it looks like Brandon Jennings made a bad decision - it looks like his European adventure has hurt his draft stock. The unprecedented, even exotic, nature of his experience seems to have left NBA personnel staff without the reference points to properly evaluate him. The implication to read from NBA GMs, as Jennings slides down the board, is that he got worse by going to Europe. The stewards of the status quo of the college game can look down upon him with condescension and paternalism for daring to develop his game elsewhere.

However, I believe that in time, whether it's next week, next year or five years, the only question that matters - Can he play? - will be answered, emphatically, "Yes".

Yo, what happen if i go #1??? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahha college basketball is done!!! its a joke though

I believe that in time it will be shown that playing in the Euroleague developed Jennings' game better than the NCAA game would have, and that it will be yet more proof that it is not necessary to play college basketball in order to develop into an elite player.

(As if more is needed: Note that the last 3 MVPs, and 4 of the 5 members of the All-NBA First Team, and as many as 7 of the 10 players starting in the Finals, did not play a second of college basketball, while NCAA icons Redick and Morrison bide their time on the pine.)

I feel like if i go top 5 more kids will go overseas!!! Trust Me!

I'm not sure how many players going forward will be able to follow in Jennings' footsteps and handle the difficult transition to Europe, but I hope that many more do so, rather than getting caught in crossfire a la Derrick Rose while paving a college coach's step up the golden ladder.

10 years from now, Ill look back and be like Im glad I did go to ROMA, ITALY!

Will Brandon Jennings laugh last? I think he will.

39 Comments:

At 4:57 AM, Blogger Joe said...

I think before you jump on the James Harden isn't athletic enough bandwagon, you should go over and look at the combine athletic tests from yesterday. Harden was one of the most athletic players in the whole group, let alone the guards.

It is a big mistake to assume.

 
At 8:52 AM, Blogger pookeyguru said...

M Haubs: I have looked at Brandon Jennings EuroLeague Stats. The problem is that EuroLeague, while a big deal, is not a league. And, I think the head honcho's wanted to get a personal feel for him and how he performs.

I think teams wanted to see him at Treviso because they wanted to see something that was different than any of his draft-mates. (This was one reason Sebastian Telfair got drafted. Portland got impressed for he worked out by Jameer Nelson. But, at the same time, Nelson might have raised his own stock by holding his own.)

I don't think there's anything wrong with that. I think it's a massive mistake to let on you're gong to Treviso, as it was believed last month, and than decide you're not going to go, when you were in Rome and Italy anyway, in favor of workouts in LA.

That shows immaturity on his part. I don't think teams have a clear handle on him personally.

That all being said, talent wise, I would not be surprised if he was the best player of the draft. I just don't think teams will take a huge risk without knowing more. I don't think Jennings has much to gain in personal workouts unless he became the Incredible Hulk in strength or something.

Teams know he is 19. They've seen the games and the tape. As I say, and for the 3rd team, it's about the personal feel.

I don't think anyone aware of the actual facts would argue that Brandon Jennings has serious talent. It's very easy to argue that not going to Treviso will hurt his draft stock badly because so many teams sent a lot of people to look at him specifically. (I mean, if Rubio is playing, why can't he?)

I realize that Jennings is not the only prospect at Treviso, nor am I implying that GM's are going over there solely for him, but there's a lot of good prospects he could play against. His draft stock is completely volatile at this point, and helping teams feel comfortable is one way he will get over that hump.

It may not matter in the end because the question is can he play. His physical talents suggest he can, and his emotional game is still something you're trying to gauge if you're a NBA team I think. (I read a lot of teams were simply pissed off cuz they couldn't see him in the Italian League playoffs.)

It's not a question of talent, or even necessarily emotions. Following through with commitments is one way to show you're ready for a team at the NBA level. (Some players don't have to go through the scrutiny Jennings goes through. Guess what? Live with it Brandon.)

 
At 1:08 AM, Anonymous Ryan said...

I have a feeling teams will be hating themselves for passing on this guy. Reminds me of CP3 in 05.

 
At 1:20 PM, Blogger M. Haubs said...

Joe: That's a fair point. I was too flip with my dismissal of Harden, because I did see that his combine numbers were good.

I would still say that I was largely unimpressed with what I saw of Harden during the NCAA season, though I shouldn't have pegged it to athleticism after the combine.

 
At 1:31 PM, Anonymous AK Dave said...

I applaud the young man's spirit and boldness. I also applaud the way he is handling decreased minutes and life in a men's league and a man's game.

College ball is peanuts compared to what he's doing. He's playing against seasoned pros- not a bunch of kids with "potential", but proven players with dirty tricks up their sleeves and enough experience to really teach him a thing or two about life- nevermind basketball.

Baseball and Hockey already laugh at the NCAA and the best players go straight from HS to farm leagues where they DO get paid to play. The NCAA is self-serving and self-promoting and little more than a business built on neo-indentured servitude. I hope that he owns the NBA, and that more kids go this route.

More importantly: living in a foreign country for a year or longer prepares you as an adult far better than going to college somewhere for a season of ball. In addition to getting to play against fierce competition, he is doing something that we all should do as young adults: travel and see the world a little bit.

Is my man-crush on this guy apparent enough? I heart Brandon Jennings. That is all.

 
At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The comment that Jrue Holliday couldn't create his own shot must be based on incomplete viewing. Holliday had no problem getting his shot. He just didn't hit them well enough.

What I saw when I watched Holliday was your typical 'man among boys,' someone for whom getting his shot was probably too easy. Missing too often drained his confidence, and then there was that gadawful UCLA offense...

UCLA's possessions went like this: Get the ball to Shipp, who fails to do anything. Swing it to a slow white guy (Roll or Dragovic), who either does nothing or shoots a terrible three in the case of Dragovic. Last option, used in 90% of possessions: get the ball to Collison with 9 on the clock, Aboya or Dragovic sets a flat screen at top, Collison shoots a three or penetrates for a floater. Holliday didn't have a place in that world.

I wouldn't put Holliday in that 'potential star' list either, but based on what I've seen, and based on what a pro guard actually has to do (ahem, defend), he's a more reliable pick than Jennings. And really, you're putting a lot of stock in HS memories with Jennings here...

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think if Jennings' draft stock is down it's because those who have an invested interest in the NBA want to discourage others from going to Europe. What better way than to have his stock plummet. And then all this talk about not seeing him play enough, his stats are down reinforces their stance. But the bottom line should be "Can he ball"?

 
At 5:34 PM, Anonymous Ty said...

Great write-up. I think I have an answer for your question as to why negative vibes are coming from GMs and Scouts from these different camps. Two words: Smoke Screen. I think that Brandon Jennings is the easiest player to smoke screen in this draft. That begs the question ... why wouldn't Brandon Jennings address these concerns? He seems like a pretty stand up guy and willing to take on the criticism. There's one really good answer for both of these things happening (other than them being actually true, which I don't think is the case) ... I think that Brandon Jennings has a promise from someone in the top 7. I'm guessing maybe Minnesota or Golden State (Monta Ellis rumor makes things more interesting). And now one of those teams is leaking false negative press so that Jennings slips to them. He's too good for any of these "concerns" to impact him the way they currently are. Anyway, I hope that's the case because I would like to see him on one of those teams.

 
At 6:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I completely agree with you about Jennings. If he went to college he would be top 3 lock. He will be a stud.

 
At 7:01 PM, Anonymous ben said...

For a guy like Harden he's playing against 3 guys constantly because the rest of his teammates don't really do anything all that well. Pendergraph can make a lay-up and the European guy can shoot, but really the opposing team is just constantly jamming him and making him make the smart play which he usually does. Unfortunately for him, his teammates didn't come through for him, but he's just one of those guys that has it, but scouts don't really like that much. Paul Pierce fell. Caron Butler fell. Brandon Roy fell. And he'll probably fall. But he's also going to end up being really good. He's going to shoot a good percentage, get assists and rebounds and he's going to play d. Not a super duper star, but I'd say he's very likely an all star and he's going to end up a hell of a lot better than almost all of the freshman guards that went last year.

 
At 7:31 PM, Blogger brocky said...

nice post.
i really liked what you wrote about jennings, i might have to move him up my mock draft in the hope that some nba gm see's the light like yourself

 
At 9:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting post. Do you think the Wiz might take Jennings? He sounds much better than Harden and with a greater potential upside than him or Jordan Hill. Hill was weak on the athletic tests.

 
At 9:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Finally. No one has anything to say about Jennings except that he has a bad attitude. they question his bball IQ, defensive ability maturity etc. Hello, Roma at times used him as a defensive stopper. He has shown he is a one man fast break and he is great at finding easy shots for his teammates. They are hating cuz he has style, a dope haircut, and hes from compton. They want him to sit quiet like tyreke and holiday, not be brash. but when curry shows confidence its another story. Jennings is the second best player in this draft and will be a star if he is put in the right situation. I like the Parker comparison, others say Kenny anderson, I see alittle bit of Kevin Johnson, Iverson, Nash and dare I say John Stockton.

 
At 9:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can bet one of these lottery teams is in Love with Brandon and just hoping he falls into their lap. Someone has to recognize the upside. I don't see him slipping past the Pacers at 13, but he could go as high as 4 to the kings.

 
At 1:21 AM, Anonymous Rebeca said...

Brandon Jennings is going to be a beast in the league, and Under Armour was very smart in making him there first basketball athlete.

 
At 2:42 PM, Anonymous rakeback said...

Jennings has been very impressive thus far for the Bucks. As a life-long Bucks fan its great to see an influx of great young talent on the team. I think they should trade Redd and make Jennings the permanent point guard.

 
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Of course, many people looking to boost their bone health choose
to supplement their diets. FIFA has stated that a player named
as a goalkeeper can only play in goal and that this rule will be enforced.
Do you want a top notch gaming PC that can play all the latest games at max
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