Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Yes, Brandon Jennings Is (Already!) Laughing Last

Well, then. Prior to the draft back in June, we wrote a post entitled "Will Brandon Jennings Laugh Last?", in which we strongly argued in favor of Jennings as a prospect - we ranked him as the no. 3 prospect in the 2009 draft class (trailing only two guys who have yet to play an NBA game, Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio) at a time when his stock was plummeting. Jay Bilas ended up ranking Jennings as the 17th best prospect on draft night, and many believe Jennings would not have been selected until the 17-19 range if the Bucks had passed on him at 10.

As much as we believed in Jennings' long-term potential, we figured we'd be writing a post like this in March or April or a couple years down the road, not two freaking weeks into the young Buck's first NBA season.

Not even we thought that it would all come together so quickly, as Jennings is averaging 25.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists (24.4 PER) in the wake of his mind-blowing 55-point performance in just the seventh game of his career, against the defenseless Warriors on Saturday night.

Because we consider point guard the toughest position to master in the NBA, we were expecting Jennings to start slow and come on later in the season. And while we thought Jennings had good shooting mechanics to build upon, we certainly weren't expecting him to hit 21-39 (.539) three-pointers out of the gate after his outside-shooting struggles in Europe - that's probably been the most surprising factor in his stunning debut. (His floaters in the lane appear to be vastly improved, as well.)

*******************************************

We can't lie - part of us relishes being able to write an "I told you so" post, after feeling like we were out on a relatively lonely limb back in June. (Note: folks should remember that Jonathan Givony of Draft Express was right on the mark on Jennings.) But that's not why we're writing this followup.

The point is not that we were right in our assessment of Brandon Jennings, and most NBA executives were wrong. We get some right, we get some wrong, so do the best of NBA scouts and executives, so does everyone. The point is why NBA executives were wrong on Jennings - there are some assumptions underlying the faulty evaluations on Jennings which need to change. We wrote in June that we "feel like Jennings is being questioned and moved down draft boards for a bunch of reasons completely unrelated to this question: Can he play?" It really did feel like evaluations of Jennings became more like a political topic than a basketball scouting report.

Here are a few of our thoughts on L'Affaire Jennings:

1. The Euroleague is a significantly better level of competition than U.S. college basketball. Period.

Anyone who has a rough sense of Euroleague basketball must be wondering why we even have to state something so obvious. Yet a misguided sense of college basketball exceptionalism was an undercurrent of all the incorrect Jennings evaluations.

Here's a quote from Billy Packer in a story on Yahoo! that's fairly representative of analysts who make their living off of the college game:
    “The guy didn’t go over there to become a better basketball player, I wouldn’t think. If you have an opportunity to go and play for Roy Williams at the University of North Carolina, or Tom Izzo [at Michigan State], you mean to tell me that going over to some European team is going to make you a better basketball player when you have an opportunity to be taught by guys that have coached multiple NBA players?”
Yes, Billy, I do mean to tell you that Jennings went over to Europe to become a better player, and that surviving a tough adjustment developed his career better than dominating the college game would have.

A couple things that are striking about Jennings' NBA game to date are 1) his poise and 2) his ability to run the pick-and-roll. Then one needs to step back and remember that he is a not a rookie in the pro game. Jennings learned how to play a pro-style game in Italy, a pick-and-roll game, and did so against experienced, grown men in the prime of their careers, with an increasingly high talent level underlying things, as any Olympic or World Championship competition of the past decade has made crystal clear.

We wrote this in June, and believe it now more than ever:
    "I believe that in time it will be shown that playing in the Euroleague developed Jennings' game better than the NCAA game would have, and that it will be yet more proof that it is not necessary to play college basketball in order to develop into an elite player."
But we understand why numerous college guys made comments tacitly denigrating Jennings' decision to thumb his nose at NCAA ball - they're ultimately just trying to protect their self-interest, which is tied in with the glory of the college game.

It's this statement, from an unnamed NBA GM in a story by Chad Ford, which still leaves our mouth agape every time we read it:
    "I'm not sure how you take a kid without a real body of work that high. I know this is a weak draft, but are we really taking kids who have struggled to produce in college or Europe in the lottery? I'm all for upside, but it's ridiculous. If Jennings can't get on the floor in Italy, how does he help my team in the next couple of years? How do you take him over some really talented college kids who have proven they can play? Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry. Those guys are talented too and they have track records."
We completely understand how fans who don't follow European basketball could look at Jennings' stats in Italy and think he was a bust. But an NBA GM should understand - has to understand - the context better.

Here's the point we're trying to illustrate: it's not that the GM above is making a poor evaluation of Jennings, that happens. It's that the GM, in this quote, is betraying that he has no understanding of the larger picture of how international basketball works, which is inexcusable. And given the way that Jennings' stock dropped prior to the draft, it seems like this sentiment was the mainstream, rather than an aberration.

An NBA GM needed to be able to look at Jennings' European stats and understand that it was a much higher level of competition than NCAA ball. Check out Josh Childress' numbers for an example - he went from 12 ppg and 5 rpg on .571 FG% (.367 3PT%) in 30 mpg for Atlanta to 9 ppg and 5 rpg on .470 FG% (.158 3PT% with a shorter line) in 24 mpg in Euroleague play in his prime for Olympiakos. It's just a different style of play.

They also needed to understand that the style of play was not as conducive to Jennings' strengths as the current NBA game. One of the key reasons we rated Jennings so high was the difference in rules: the NBA interpretation of no contact allowed on the perimeter plus the defensive 3-second rule are both significant differences vs. how the game is called in Europe. In Euroleague games that we watched, we often saw Jennings get past his man, only to run into a mass of bigs clogging the painted area. Indeed, playing on a floor with more open space has really helped Jennings in the league.

Don't know too much more to say than to highly recommend the Euroleague games which are aired weekly on NBA TV or ESPN 360. We've been hooked ever since we got our first glimpse of Manu Ginobili, back in the 2002 Final Four. It's enjoyable not just to catch internationals before they hit the shores of the NBA, but also to see Americans establish their pro bonafides, as a guy like Will Bynum did at Maccabi Tel Aviv a couple years ago. Ricky Rubio is a hell of a fun watch with Barcelona, of course, and you can also catch guys who could be playing key NBA roles in the next few years, like Tiago Splitter or Nikola Pekovic.

2. Needing to see a player play in person in order to evaluate him is wildly overrated in 2009.

Is it better to see a player in person to scout him? Sure. There are things one can glean in regard to how a player carries himself, interacts with teammates and coaches, etc. in person which can't be seen on television or tape. One can gather further information about a player - as reporters Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony did regarding Jennings in Italy - by seeing practices and talking to coaches who work with him and to scouts on the ground there.

But, ultimately, is it necessary, in 2009, to see a player in person to evaluate him? Absolutely not.

The biggest crock regarding the botched evaluations of Jennings is the whole sense, voiced repeatedly, that decision-makers were not able to see Jennings in enough 5-on-5 competition. Here are some of the quotes over the last year:

Jay Bilas:
    “But with [Jrue] Holiday, you can make the argument that because he played in full view of NBA decision makers, that there’s some value to that. That he’s more of a known commodity to the NBA than Jennings is. And while they may have questions about both prospects, they’ve seen him. Holiday was playing in full view, and Brandon Jennings was basically playing in blackout conditions.”
Neil Olshey, asst. GM for the Clippers:
    “The decision makers, they don’t have the luxury of going to seven or eight games [in Europe] every year. The question is how much stock teams will put into workouts instead of a player’s body of work.”
Jonathan Givony, Draft Express:
    "Numerous teams in the lottery have pointed out to us that they do not feel comfortable with the amount of competitive five on five action they’ve seen Jennings partake in, and that they would have a difficult time selecting him based on the body of work he’s put together up until this point."
A "veteran GM" to Chad Ford on ESPN.com, after Jennings opted not to play at the Reebok Eurocamp prior to the draft in June:
    "We all came to see whether this kid can really play. I'd heard the hype, watched the video and heard various opinions from my scouts. I wanted to see how he stacked up against other top kids his age. Then he doesn't show. He sure isn't making this easy on us. You want to like the kid, but he ain't giving you a lot to go on."
This kind of rhetoric holds up if it were 1987, but it's 2009. As we wrote in June, it wasn't like Jennings was playing in the third division in Estonia, he was in the freaking Euroleague. The idea that he was "playing in blackout conditions" is patently ridiculous.

There were multiple Roma games available on NBA TV, more available on ESPN 360, and all Euroleague games were available via the Euroleague.TV online package. Furthermore, Synergy Sports offers breakdowns of European games, so we'd imagine that any GM could easily call up a substantial percentage of Jennings' minutes in Rome, itemized by possession, to his office computer right now.

Go back and watch Lottomatica Roma's game vs. Tau Ceramica - one of the top teams in Europe, closer to an NBA team than an NCAA team, featuring top internationals like Tiago Splitter, Pablo Prigioni and Igor Rakocevic - from January, and the promise in Jennings' game that we're seeing today is all right there.

Sorry, but if you can't make a judgment about whether a guy can play based on video, enhanced by the tools from Synergy Sports, in 2009, then you don't deserve to be working in a team personnel department.

Seeing a player in person is better, but it is not necessary. The idea that it is necessary is frankly condescending, to suggest that there's some sort of magic which insiders with access have that the common fan simply can't grasp.

The point is not that we were right, and they were wrong. It's that some guy in Seattle who records a few games on his DVR *can* be right. There's no way, just a few years ago, that anyone in the U.S. would have been able to see a glimpse of Jennings in Rome. Then, seeing him in person mattered, because that was the only real access available. Not now.

3. Amazingly, the Knicks probably would have been better off with Isiah making the selection on draft night.

As much as Jennings never should have slipped to no. 10, it at least appears that several of the guys taken above him can play.

The first exception is that it sure looks like the pick of Hasheem Thabeet at no. 2 was the worst pick of the 2009 draft, but that's what happens when the owner makes the pick, and Michael Heisley and his disastrous franchise are basically irredeemable at this point.

What's become increasingly apparent is that the colossally bad pick of the night was the Knicks' selection of Jordan Hill ahead of Jennings.

The Brandon Jennings we've seen in Milwaukee would have been the perfect guy to run Mike D'Antoni's show in New York. He would have been the perfect guy to bring some excitement and energy back into Madison Square Garden. Did you see the crowd in Milwaukee on Monday night? That place has been a mausoleum the last few years, but it was rocking like a college crowd in the first game following Young Money's double-nickel.

And dare we say it: Brandon Jennings would have been the perfect player to create an atmosphere in 2009-10 - on the court, in the arena, in the city - which would make the Knicks more enticing to LeBron James.

Why didn't Knicks president of basketball operations Donnie Walsh select Jennings?:
    "I didn't have a good feel for his game. I went to Europe, Treviso, to see him at a draft camp and he didn't show. We brought him in here and the situation is not running up and down, 5 on 5. So going into the draft, I didn't get a good feeling."
Ah, of course, that makes sense, Donnie. You weren't able to see him play 5-on-5 in person, and geez, you've only been in basketball for 50 years, so we can't expect that you'd be able to evaluate him just by watching every minute he played on video, can we?

Walsh has also passed the buck (no pun intended!) by saying that his scouts should have argued for Jennings harder.

Alan Hahn of Newsday is a very good reporter, but we'd have to disagree with this statement in a recent story:
    "Walsh explained last week that he "didn't have a good feel" for Jennings' game, which is somewhat understandable because of how little that could be judged from Jennings' limited minutes in Italy last season."
It's just not true, go back to our story from June - that was based entirely off of observations of Jennings from last season, the elements of his game were evident right there - Walsh just can't be let off the hook for this.

That's where we get back to our statement in bold above. For everything Isiah did to devastate the franchise, he has always drafted well. His nose for potential has generally been ahead of the curve, such as when he stole Tracy McGrady with the 9th pick in 1997, when guys were still wary of high-schoolers. Our gut feeling is that Isiah would have understood Jennings and his game, and would have taken him at 8. Isn't it crazy: the Knicks really probably would have been better off turning their draft over to Isiah! (As long as he wasn't allowed to make any trades, of course!)

We're working our way through Bill Simmons' The Book of Basketball, which is a rollicking good read. One of the fun sections asks "What if?" questions from throughout NBA history, such as "What if the Hawks had taken Chris Paul in the 2005 draft?", and then speculates on how things might have played out had a different course been taken.

If it turns out that LeBron James passes on the Knicks next summer, and part of his reasoning is that there's not enough promise and hope on the team's roster, don't be surprised if the biggest new "What if?" question added to a future edition of the book is "What if the New York Knicks had picked Brandon Jennings in the 2009 draft?"

44 Comments:

At 2:07 AM, Blogger aneebaba said...

Great post. I always love seeing those who were counted out proving their critics wrong - with a double-nickel no less! Simply awesome!

 
At 4:23 AM, Blogger Rainier said...

As a Knick fan, reading this post makes our horrible record seem much worse.

But I agree that you shouldn't have to see a player play right in front of your eyes to be able to accurately gauge the talent and the potential. Especially if the means to properly evaluate are readily available.

Donnie Walsh played it safe and we got burned. Though I'm curious why didn't D'Antoni recognize Jennings' talent. He certainly could have had the Italian connections necessary to get a feel for Jennings' game.

Did they think he was similar to Marbury, personality-wise, and that became a red flag?

 
At 6:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I totally wanna thank you guys who properly gave a true scouting report on Jennings last June. I have all my fantasy teams drafted Jennings. And right now? I'm smiling all the way to my ears. :)

And yes, to all those who think international play isn't worth it. Well, duh, you really think college play is better? PROs man, they're pros.

 
At 3:22 AM, Blogger whatworks said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10:46 AM, Blogger Scott said...

Excellent post. Cogent, well-argued, convincing-- and well-nigh irrefutable! I've been in love with Jennings's game since Gunnin' for that #1 Spot. It's good to see him top of the heap.

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Mark S. said...

Though I'm curious why didn't D'Antoni recognize Jennings' talent. He certainly could have had the Italian connections necessary to get a feel for Jennings' game.

I'm not sure D'Antoni is a great judge of talent (from an acquisition POV). This is a man who chose to sign Marcus Banks over drafting Rajon Rondo.

 
At 11:44 AM, Blogger WitnessProtection said...

Excellent post - in this day and age, claiming that you haven't seen enough of a player is equivalent to saying you didn't put in the effort to do your job correctly. Here's to Brandon Jennings proving them all wrong.

 
At 1:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fantastic post, thoroughly enjoyed reading it. I feel he's an aberration: the top high school prospect in the country managed to pull this off, but more kids that go overseas are going to be hard pressed to do what Young Money has done.

Always good to see words getting thrown back in faces too.

 
At 2:11 PM, Blogger Izzy said...

Very good post. I've been reading B. Jennings "steal of the draft" articles anywhere I can get my hands on them. I drafted him in fantasy and told everyone they would be begging to trade me by December. Well, Jennings even outperformed that expectation! The future is bright for him. He will be the player to rejuvenate the Bucks. The best guard to come through the Bucks since Ray Allen (we don't count Gary Payton's 4 month vacation).

Imagine where the Grizzlies would be if they drafted him. There would have never been a need to sign AI, and they would have had an amazing young core of M.Gasol, Mayo, Gay, and Jennings.

As diehard fans, we see things in such a different light. I wonder sometimes..."What are these GMs thinking?"

Great post!

ps-Chris Paul was drafted in 2005 =)

 
At 2:14 PM, Blogger M. Haubs said...

Whoops - Thanks, Izzy! Fixed.

 
At 3:03 PM, Anonymous MIke B said...

Great post.

What I don't get is how everyone claims to be naive about not seeing this star rising.

Just look at his list of accomplishments (before he even left for Europe):

Parade, EA Sports, MaxSports, and Naismith 2008 National Player of the Year.

Elite 24 Game Co-MVP: 19 points, 7 rebounds and 23 assists... (As a Junior)

Jordan Game Co-MVP

And in 2006, he led what many believe is the greatest AAU team of all-time to a record of 65-0.

I know David Stern has tried to keep scouts out of the high school gyms, but come on. These GM's claiming ignorance just further shows why their teams are in the lottery year after year.

 
At 3:11 PM, Anonymous Paul said...

Fantastic, solid body of writing. Much more of an essay than simple journalism.

with good wishes from Lithuania!

 
At 4:31 PM, Blogger W.H. said...

I have to agree that Jennings playing in NY would have been greatly enticing to LeBron - for all his love for Mo Williams LeBron has never had an elite PG running the show for him - he needs that more than a dominant post player to clog his driving lanes.

 
At 4:35 PM, Blogger MysticalBlack said...

Enjoyable read, I especially liked the part of how Isiah wouldn't have passed on him. I still feel the Knicks should have kept him on in some sort of consulting role because he has an eye for talent when it comes to the draft. Last year he probably would have gone for Eric Gordon or Anthony Randolph, and this year Jennings or Ty Lawson.

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm from Milwaukee, a Bucks fan and practically did a backflip when they picked Jennings.

But, Darko Milicic got picked 2nd despite limited minutes and despite the fact that almost no one saw him play in real games. They got blasted for it. There's really nothing to be learned from the Brandon Jennings thing any more than there is for why Michael Redd got picked 41st or Ben Wallace went undrafted. Every draft is a hit and miss guessing game. Jennings was hardly a sure thing.

 
At 5:02 PM, Blogger CassavaLeaf.com said...

Brandon Jennings is 10x better than any other rookie

 
At 5:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

haha, i posted in your original article agreeing with you, So congrats to you and me!

 
At 11:55 PM, Blogger tsompas said...

Well, the kid did sound like Marbury a lot.. I'm pretty sure that's the main reason they didn't pick him. And his 3-point stats were terrible!But the same was true for Rubio :)

 
At 4:47 AM, Blogger labidas said...

Good writing, gotta love this kid. Cracked me up with "it wasn't like Jennings was playing in the third division in Estonia", because that's exactly where I've been playing at for the last few years.

 
At 6:16 AM, Blogger Steve said...

If I didn't see Jennings play in summer league, I'd be buying all the talk about how Europe helped him. But because I did, I just can't. It's not that he played horribly, it's that the player he was in summer league is so completely different than the current version that I can't give his European coaches the credit.

Theoretically, the summer version represents Brandon Jennings crafted from high school and Europe because you go from the draft almost directly to summer league so that NBA coaches haven't had the time to work with you. They let to you play almost for evaluation purposes, to see your strengths and weaknesses and what you have to work on.

What they must have seen was a guy with horrendous shooting mechanics, a guy who faded away on almost every shot and kicked out his legs to make things even more difficult. I couldn't understand it. Europe is lauded for its endless practices and focus on fundamentals. How they did let Jennings leave without fixing his form? Another thing is that he had no floater to finish around the rim. His only way to finish was taking on big guys and trying to outjump them--which didn't work too well. How could they not have taught him a floater, which is now a very important part of his arsenal.

Maybe his European coaches tried to fix his flaws but Jennings resisted. Maybe that happened. But whatever the case, he cleaned up his form and added a floater after summer league. I have to give Skiles and company the credit for his play so far, not his Euro coaches.

 
At 7:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

great post, as a toronto fan, my brother and I always debate over whether derozan was the right pick, BC clearly pick for position, and demar is super athletic, plus we already have jose, so I can't complain, but it would've been sick to see Bosh with Jennings.

you should probably add this to the what-if question, what if toronto picked jenning, and put him in the pick and roll with chris bosh. and they've done so well that bosh decide to stay in toronto for the rest of his career, and we bring the championship up north.

another thing i like about jenning, canada is a lot closer to cali than rome, so i can presume staying in toronto won't be a problem for him. lol

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Big Pars said...

all i will say is that hindsight is always 20-20 my friend, and the truth of the matter is that before his 55 point effort, nobody was heavily praising Jennings. How could the Griz - who spent the last two drafts on OJ Mayo and Mike Conley - go out and draft another player in that mold, especially when OJ has shown flashes. Thabeet wasn't a great pick, but it fit and it's the Griz, they are supposed to do really dumb shit. All I will say is that going into the draft, Jennings was as much of a question mark as anyone - and his play overseas only reaffirmed that stance. We're not talking about a guy who even played OK - he played pretty poorly and sparingly overseas - and was the first player to do go from hike school to international ball, so there were no previous cases to compare it to. There was as much reason to believe he would be a bust as there was to believe he'd be sweet.

 
At 11:57 AM, Anonymous jabez said...

As one of the few and proud, a Nets fan, I posted several comments advocating drafting Jennings on the excellent NetsDaily site in the days leading up to the draft. I said that the guy had star written all over him, and despite having Devin, we should draft him as the best player available. I was pretty much alone in that assessment, as the favorites were TWill, Hansbrough, and Clark.

The Nets would have almost certainly passed on Jennings, partly because he is a cousin of Marcus Williams, and his flame-out after two seasons was seen as possibly genetic. Of course, the Bucks and Nets had identical records last year and the Bucks won the coin flip. And how quickly the paths have diverged from there!

 
At 2:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

lol at the one comparing Jennings with Milicic. The american guy was playing in the top league in Europe, while the Serbian was barely playing in a mediocre team in a mediocre league!
@ Steve Brandon had a Serbian personal coach (I can't remember his name) for all the last season following him to improve his 3 points shooting mechanics. He was disastrous on that skill when he arrived in Rome, while at the end of the season he was clearly a bit better.
greeting fro Italy

 
At 11:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 6:42 PM, Anonymous Jason Heyward said...

Jennings has pretty much staked his claim to ROY already and should have a good chance to make the All-Star team.

 
At 4:28 PM, Blogger radar said...

Duh squared! The Knicks were as dumb to pass on Jennings as the Hawks were to drop the Chris Paul ball and both franchises are hurting for it. Chris Paul would be looking to take the Hawks to the finals but with the N.O. crew he will be lucky to make the playoffs. New York won't make the playoffs but Jennings in Milwaukee doesn't sound like the beginning of a dynasty, either. All parties have suffered from two stupid decisions!

Thomas is a good judge of talent, too bad he would not be satisfied in that role. He could play, and he can identify those who can play. He just stinks at anything else.

 
At 11:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Give the Euros some props already! Parker and Ginobili---28th and 57th?

 
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At 4:22 PM, Anonymous jake heaps said...

Jennings has been a very pleasant surprise to Bucks fans. There is a great group of young talent on the team, and things look promising if he sticks around.

 
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