Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Hoping for a Higher Level of Heat

While I have personal NBA rooting interests here and there, for the most part, I don't care who wins or loses. I really just want to see good basketball. Ideally, I just want to see full potential reached in quality of play for teams and individuals... and ultimately the game itself.

While I was somewhat bummed that LeBron's Decision seemed to take him off the narrative track that all-time greats have followed, I was ultimately more excited by the prospect of seeing basketball played at its highest and most beautiful level - by the wonder of what could be with the combination of James, Wade and Bosh.

With just ten games played, this Miami Heat era is still in its infancy, so it's far too early to make definitive pronouncements. Despite Miami's early stumbles to 6-4, I still think they'll be able to cruise toward the 60-win range in the regular season.

Beyond the wins and losses, my biggest frustration with the Heat so far is that I haven't found their brand of basketball to be particularly enjoyable to watch. I didn't expect these Heat to come out of the womb achieving the Winterian ideal of the triangle, but so far, the whole has been far less than the sum of its parts, aesthetically. Far from seeing a beautiful game, I've often found the Heat to be ugly and even boring at times to watch.

Of course, it's Miami's job to win games rather than entertain me, but I do think style of play is affecting results a bit, and I do believe that the lofty expectations for this team include playing the game in such a way that captures our imagination.

So much interesting stuff has been written about these Heat in the past few days. Arnovitz and Haberstroh and Krolik and Pelton and Lowe and others have done a fine job dissecting what is and is not working to date for Miami. Let me see if I can find some new ground by explaining my frustrations with the Heat through 10 games.

Issue 1a: Too Many Long 2s via Pick-and-Pop
The Miami Heat are second in the league in field-goal attempts from 16-23 feet. At times, their offense seems to consist of a cavalcade of pick-and-pops. LeBron to Big Z for a 21-footer! LeBron to Udonis for a 17-footer! How about... LeBron back to Big Z for another 21-footer! You can't miss this dazzling show of mid-range jumpers, America! It's the "Big Z for Big Zzzzzzz's" offense.

Even though Miami is last in the league in field-goal attempts from 10 feet or closer, and last in the league in points in the painted area, it doesn't seem to be hurting them overall, as they are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The fact that Miami leads the league in FT/FGA (one of the Four Factors which correlate most closely with winning) certainly helps mitigate their numbers in the painted area.

Still, it seems like Miami could make better use of developing more of a pick-and-roll game in addition to the pick-and-pops. Bosh is particular seems like he could be better utilized as a roll man. The usage rates for James (30.9) and Wade (32.7) have not dropped too much compared to recent years, but Bosh's usage has plummeted from 28.7 to 20.1.

[Note: Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes, calculated as {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)]

In terms of field-goal attempts, Bosh is down at all distances, but especially so in at-rim attempts:
             Total    At Rim
BOSH FGA Per Game Per Game
'09-10 16.6 5.9
'10-11 11.0 2.7
The more granular data available from mySynergySports, accompanied by video, allows me to dig a little further, of course with the caveat that we still have a very small sample for 2010-11.

In plays in which Bosh is designated as the "Roll Man" in the pick-and-roll, he is averaging a solid 1.17 points per possession (PPP), probably a negligible difference compared to 2009-10 in Toronto, when he averaged 1.24 PPP in the same role, ranking him 15th in the league in that granular category.

Observing several samples of these plays from this season and last, I tend to see a different Bosh. As the "Roll Man" in Toronto, he seemed to more consistently set his screens with purpose, directly in the circle above the free-throw line, and he dove straight to the hole more frequently, and to good effect.

In Miami so far, Bosh's pick-and-roll action has looked more tentative at times, more often seeming to set his screens almost as an afterthought, from less consistent locations - often sort of on the wing, and very often further away from the basket - and he seems to be relying on the pop rather than the roll more often.

It seems like getting Bosh more in a comfort zone of consistently setting his screens around 17-18 feet away, directly above the rim, and rolling harder, would make the Miami PnR game even more lethal, and more fun to watch, too.

Issue 1b: Too Many Long 2s via Impatience
I can understand if Miami is still adjusting the nuances of its pick-and-roll game in mid-November, but too often I've seen inexcusable shot selection consisting of James and Wade settling for long jump shots early in the shot clock.

Even in the first half vs. Utah, when Miami scored 51 points and built a 19-point lead, here was a stretch of possessions in the first quarter:
    • James MAKE (21 ft) - 2 PTS
    Pull-up at :16 on the shot clock after no passes.

    • Bosh MAKE (18 ft) - 2 PTS
    Open shot at :16 after a couple passes draws defense away.

    • James Miss (21 ft)
    After taking a pass on the wing, LeBron sizes up Kirilenko in isolation for a few seconds before missing a 21-footer without a dribble.

    • Wade MAKE - 3 PTS
    Dribbles up court and knocks down a three at :18.

    • Jones MAKE - 3 PTS
    Double high-post set vs. Utah zone - LeBron draws D over and sets up Jones for open corner 3. Nice play.

    • James Miss (22 ft)
    Dribbles up court and pulls up with a foot on the line at :19.

    • James Miss (12 ft)
    After good motion, three passes, and a James-Bosh side PnR, LeBron misses a running hook in the lane at :04. Pretty good shot.

    • Wade Miss
    On side PnR with Bosh, D-Wade takes a dribble past the screen and jacks up a somewhat-contested 3 at :08.
So that's eight possessions which actually resulted in 10 points, that's efficient offense overall, but it was just so ugly.

Three isolation long 2s by LeBron at 12-16-19 in shot clock (one make). Two Wade 3's, basically jacked up.

I feel like I've seen sequences like these far too often, with LBJ/Wade repeatedly settling for 16+-foot shots off the dribble. It's just inexcusably ugly and frustrating to watch. These shots will be there whenever, they can get better ones. These guys are veterans, they should know better, and they can do better.

Issue 2: Too Slow
It makes me a little nervous whenever I'm in lockstep with a major Charles Barkley talking point, so I'll try not to belabor it. First of all, Miami has two of the most unstoppable open-court basketball players who have ever lived. Number one, the Heat are playing at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, are ranked 19th in fast-break points, and are struggling to consistently produce easy buckets, especially without a strong low-post presence. So, first of all, they need to play faster!

Tom Haberstroh did a really nice job of breaking down how the Heat need to create more turnovers to generate a better running game, and that the return to health of Mario Chalmers may help in that regard. Haberstroh also showed how Miami doesn't have the personnel to run a full-fledged Suns-style "Seven Seconds or Less" running game, and I certainly agree.

Still, I think there's plenty of room in the space between for Miami to play a bit faster, in the name of giving James and Wade more open space to attack and create.

I would make a football analogy in comparison. If you are a fan of a football team with a bad run defense, and an opponent chooses to kick on fourth-and-short, you exhale and feel like you've dodged a bullet. I'd imagine you feel similar as a fan a team opposing Miami. Please, please, please don't let them get out in the open court, you think, and breath a sigh of relief when you're able to keep them in the halfcourt and the stagnant pound-pound-pound the dribble game.

I just want to see LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out in the open court together! That's what I signed up for as a basketball fan here. Is that really too much to ask?

Issue 3: Not Enough Imagination
Again, part of what we loved about the '80s Lakers was the beauty of the Showtime running game, part of what we've loved about the Phil Jackson Bulls and Lakers is the space and logic and passing game of the triangle offense.

When I watch these Miami Heat, I not only want to see the beauty and skill of the game, I want to see something new. It's an almost unprecedented collection of talent at the top end. Imagine some way to play the game that maximizes this combination's talents.

So far, Miami's been like a jazz group that plays all solos, with limited plays in the halfcourt where even two of the three main guys work together, much less all three. Pick-and-pop. Pound-pound-pound the dribble. Pick-and-pop.

One interesting stat I found on Synergy was Bosh's 1.25 PPP on Isolation plays, currently ranked no. 1 in the league, and up from 0.92 last year. Who knows if it's a sample-size aberration or something telling, but it certainly makes sense that Bosh's driving lanes should be more open as a no. 3 option instead of a no. 1.

What about running a variation of the Dribble-Drive Motion Offense (Explanation, Diagrams), which seems like it could insert more motion into Miami's game, while also taking advantage of the superior ability to create plays off the dribble owned by James, Wade and even Bosh?

I don't know, I just want something else. These guys are too dynamic, too unselfish, too exceptional to be relegated to a steady diet of pound-pound-pound the dribble and pick-and-pop ad infinitum.

Zach Lowe of SI in particular has pointed out that we've seen glimpses of Miami's Big 3 working together, and again, it's only been 10 games. I don't expect them to have reached mystical levels of team cohesion so far.

It is part of my hope and even expectation for this group, however, that they achieve a level of beautiful play as well as excellence eventually, and I'm impatient to see more steps in that direction.


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