Friday, February 22, 2013

Trade Deadline Musings: What If Thomas Robinson Just Isn't That Good?

I've been surprised by the vehemence of the negative reaction to Sacramento's trade of Thomas Robinson to Houston for Patrick Patterson (the core players of this deal). I feel like there is a lot of noise obscuring a fair reading of this question: Did Sacramento make its team better with this trade?

The Maloofs are inarguably complete disasters as owners, close to destroying one of the league's best fan bases. Geoff Petrie has suffered an inglorious slide from the turn of the century, when he was arguably the best GM in the league, to now, when the Sacramento front office has fallen far behind the times as other teams have modernized rapidly. But I believe the (fair) perceptions of the Maloofs and Petrie are affecting a fair evaluation of this trade.

Let's concede two points:
1. The Kings likely could have gotten a better deal for Robinson. No one in the media knows for sure, and it's always easy to suggest that Mythical Trade X was out there, but sure, I'll concede that Sacramento likely could have received a better swap of assets than what Petrie achieved.

2. Robinson has a better contract than Patterson, in that T-Rob has three years left on his rookie deal, while P-Pat has just one. No doubt.

But a lot has been made of the Maloofs saving $3 million this year on this deal (which actually amounts to $1M when pro-rated). This streamlines right into the narrative because the Maloofs have demonstrated that they are cheap, awful owners, but really, this savings doesn't seriously impact the future of the Kings if they made their team better with this trade.

**********************************

So, Thomas Robinson. For all of the criticism of this trade, what if it turns out that Robinson just isn't that good?

I'm not claiming to be the world's best talent evaluator - there are plenty of hits and misses in The Painted Area archives - but I was not that high on Robinson coming out of Kansas, and he's been about the same guy I expected in Sacramento. Robinson struck me as a player who was an elite college athlete, physically dominant in NCAA ball (especially as an older, third-year player), but there was a marked contrast when matched up against an elite pro athlete such as Anthony Davis.

T-Rob struggled to convert against Kentucky, against whom he went 11-29 on FG in two games, and this has carried over the pros, where he's had 10.8% of his shots blocked, and converted a poor 54.4% of shots at the rim. Robinson *looks* like an elite NBA athlete, with his chiseled physique, but I don't believe that he actually is one.

Overall, Robinson rates a fairly dismal 23rd among rookies in PER (10.9) and 26th in EWA (basically PER taking total minutes into account), despite being one of the older, more-experienced rookies taken in the lottery. What's more, when I open up my trusted copy of Pro Basketball Prospectus by ESPN's Kevin Pelton, I find that the translated stats from Robinson's junior season projected his production as an NBA rookie pretty much dead on - with very good rebounder and very inefficient scorer being the two headlines. (Though it is worth noting that Robinson's stats from his sophomore season, when he played far fewer minutes, give him a more favorable projection.)

Both my eyes and the numbers suggest that Robinson is a little bit more than 'just a guy', a solid rotation big overall.

Patterson, meanwhile, has a career PER of 14.2, including 15.6 this season. Robinson is a far better rebounder, but Patterson is a far better shooter, and has been more productive overall. He'll likely fit better next to DeMarcus Cousins on offense (though Patterson doesn't help SAC's dismal rebounding), and also certainly fit far better next to Omer Asik in Houston than Robinson will.

I'm not suggesting Patrick Patterson's an All-Star, but I think he's a better player than Robinson. I've seen some sentiment that Patterson may be better today, but Robinson surely has greater upside. I mean, first of all, Patterson's only 23, just two years older than Robinson; he's not necessarily a finished product in his own right. And again, I just don't see the evidence of great Robinson upside. Just because he was the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft doesn't make it so.

And T-Rob's being the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft is yet another fact which I believe is obscuring a fair evaluation of this trade. "How can a team give up on its lottery pick during his rookie season?!", the masses are wailing.

Well, I mean, isn't this what we *want* GM's to do? Don't we ding decision-makers for sticking with the guys they chose strictly for the reason that these are the guys they chose? Isn't it better to get rid of lottery picks who can't play sooner rather than later? Is, for example, the Sixers' continued multi-year charade of treating Evan Turner like he can play strictly because he was the no. 2 pick the preferred route?

The Draft was where Sacramento made the big error with Robinson, in drafting him ahead of players like Damian Lillard and Andre Drummond. But, honestly, the fact that he was the no. 5 pick in last year's Draft is irrelevant to the substance of this trade, at this point.

I think we can get caught up in evaluating trades against the Platonic ideal of what could have happened sometimes, rather than just evaluating them on their faces. Could the Kings have gotten more for Robinson? Probably. Is Patterson better enough to justify the difference in salary in a couple years? Possibly not, but possibly so.

I believe that Sacramento is a better team, both short-term and long-term, following this deal, though just incrementally. I think it's a pretty good deal for the Kings, which could well turn out to be not-so-great. But I just don't see this being anywhere near the colossal disaster as it's being portrayed by many.

I think that the fact that the Maloofs are terrible owners, and that Petrie has a subpar track record recently (such as the 2011 Jimmer draft trade which was a true disaster), and that Robinson was the no. 5 pick last year, are unfairly contributing to the portrayal of this trade as an unmitigated disaster. The next owners of the Kings franchise, be they in Sacramento or Seattle, will still have plenty of heavy lifting ahead, but this trade will not set them back materially.

76 Comments:

At 8:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're forgetting the fact that Robinson was playing for the Kings. It's a team of 3 PGs, 4 PFs, and whatever Tyreke is, and pretty much every single one of those guys is a shoot first player. That's not a good situation for an extremely athletic (you think his impressive rebounding numbers are just good luck?) but offensively challenged PF.

The fact that Robinson gets 10% of his shots blocked is actually a GOOD sign. You can coach a player on how to use his body to keep the defender away from the ball, and that should improve his field goal percentage dramatically. Give McHale a few seasons to teach him how to play in the post, and with his developing jump shot Robinson could be a force.

You'd never say that Patterson could be a force, because you know exactly what he is: a fringe starter with a good offensive game, no rebounding, and ok defense who is going to demand something like 8-10 million a year, aka the worst value contracts.

You can't justify this trade. It puts the Kings in a worse situation financially beyond this season (which is why it's obvious that this was a quick cash grab by the Maloofs)and you traded the 5th pick for a decent player. You'd have laughed at this offer if it came during the draft. Don't try and justify it now. The only positive is that the Maloofs will be gone soon.

 
At 8:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I actually thought the same thing as the author. Now, I will say that I have a difficult time believing that Robinson received enough playing time to form a firm opinion for anyone looking in from the outside. It is also a fair statement that players need time to develop.

However, the Kings saw him in practice every day. Robinson was not a one and done project. He played for three years in college on a good team.

I read that the Cavaliers were also discussing a trade with Sacramento to remove the protection from the draft pick the Kings already traded. Apparently, the Kings thought that giving up an unknown player in this year's lottery (which does not have particularly strong) was worse than giving up Robinson (or Cousins, or Tyreke for that matter).

 
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At 8:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In response to the first anonymous commenter:

"The fact that Robinson gets 10% of his shots blocked is actually a GOOD sign"

No, it really isn't. It means he is still behind the curve of the other players in his class. It's not like the other players are going to stop developing so that he can catch up to them.

Speaking of which, have you seen the percentage of shots that Demarcus gets blocked on? It was 11% as a rookie, 10% last year, and 10% this year. He hasn't learned yet in three season how to control his body. There's no guarantee that Robinson will either.

"you think his impressive rebounding numbers are just good luck?"

Do you really believe a guy has to be extremely athletic to get rebounds? There are LOTS of unathletic players who rebound well because they work hard and know how to get good position. There are lots of phenomenal athletes who are crappy rebounders (Tyrus Thomas, for example). By your logic, Nikola Vucevic must be a freakish athlete, and we know that's not true.

 
At 3:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem is your entire argument is based on developmental questions that we don't have the answers to. It comes down to the title: what if he's just not that good? There's risk, sure. But there is also upside, and so teams will pay for that upside (end of 1st-round picks cost around $3 million, right?), because I think we can all agree that we're not completely sure what he is yet.

So if you think about it that way, he was sold for $1M I believe? That's 1/3 of a 25th pick plus Patterson.

And so the completed analysis would include 'And what if he improves?', considering that probability, multiplied by a factor of just how good he gets.

So it seems the final equation is
Value of Robinson upside * probability of achieving upside minus 1/3 of a 25th pick plus Patterson. This would be weighted b the fact that Patterson's got a 3-year rookie deal left, Patterson just one.

Your article disregards the value of Robinson's upside. It just says 'Maybe he has none'. But that's incomplete.

Finally, you don't have to be super athletic to get rebounds. But it sure helps. If you want to say he's not athletic, back it up with numbers from pre-draft workouts, don't just say 'He looks athletic but isn't.' How many people is that going to convince?..

 
At 3:17 AM, Blogger steppling said...

great analysis. Exactly what Ive been saying to much derision. Robinson was overrated at kansas....and no you cant teach guys not to get their shot blocked. Sullinger has the same problem but does other things better. Patterson is vastly underrated. not a classic four but a guy with great hands, a god ball handler and has just as much upsid.

 
At 5:25 AM, Anonymous Jacob said...

Just had to chime in - this article nails my post-trade thoughts so astutely I'm very happy you wrote it.

Some bonus thoughts:
- Daryl Morey fanboyism is still rampant, with ESPN / Grantland / Yahoo going completely overboard in worshipping his genius making this deal. Not saying he's not a good GM, but come on.
- It drove me crazy that everybody kept referring to Thomas Robinson as "#5 pick", as if you could trade him straight up for a #5 at this point. Following that logic, Jan Vesely would be a really hot commodity around the league.

Thank you.

 
At 6:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is some seriously half-baked analysis.
You think Robinson's numbers against Kentucky are that meaningful?
What about Anthony Davis's numbers again Kansas in the same games? (1-10 for 6 points in the championship)
Don't get me wrong, I think Davis is a HUGE talent with more upside than Robinson, but to pretend that numbers from a single game or two can support your claim that Robinson isn't that good?
Gimme a f*ckin break.

 
At 9:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought the article was right on the money. If you have seen Robinson play you see a project player with terrible basketball instincts and terrible hands. He did not get much playing time on one of the worst, arguably the worst and most dysfunctional team in the league which speaks volumes no matter how bad you think the coach is who also leaves something to be desired. The only thing Robinson can do is rebound and hustle. As to his potential, he will probably be a role player for his career or out of the league after his contract expires. We will see if the Rockets pick up his option as a barometer of how uch the Rockets can develop him. There is always a chance, with Robinson I ust think that chance is so small. He is a turnover machine. On the other hand the Kings have a poor history of developing their draft picks. Patterson gives them a fairly serviceable and skilled player who can contribute now as a starter who has an outside shot which is a weakness, there are so many, that the team had to address. The team is going to be blown up with new ownership anyway. A good trade but not great. The inept management finaly did something right by recognizing they made a colossal mistake in getting a number 5 pick whose play was basically an unmitigated disaster by getting rid of him and getting a player who fills one of their needs in return.

 
At 10:26 AM, Blogger Spencer Zuzolo said...

This is all good analysis, but I was shocked to not see the 'change of scenery' argument as part of the Robinson upside. I think when he gets minutes with Asik you will see his hustle payoff with easier baskets on offense (Fast break dunks AND weakside putback jams from rotating defenses) and better team defense in the paint. The uptempo style will help him finish and raise his confidence. Just getting out of toxic Sacramento might help his mental ability to learn and grow.
Additionally, the words 'hustle' and 'rebounds' describes EXACTLY what we need at the four in Houston and I think being taught by some post gods in Dream and McHale will help Robinson in the long run.
As an aside, Morey is a smart guy and since a lot of GMs are still VERY high on Robinson I can see Morey convert him into assets later or as part of a strategy to get a star free agent. Either way, as much as I loved PPat, I would rather see boards and hustle and NOT threes from our Four.

 
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At 12:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous @ 9:52: "He did not get much playing time on one of the worst, arguably the worst and most dysfunctional team in the league which speaks volumes"

Just like Isaiah Thomas? He's their best (still developing) playmaker and he was benched for Aaron Brooks and the Jimmer for the first half of the season. And when he was actually put on the floor, he was often relegated to the corner as a spot up shooter or a last second chunker. So no, it doesn't speak volumes. It does mean, however, that Keith Smart does not live up to his last name very well.

 
At 3:02 PM, Anonymous Jacob said...

Just for kicks, here's a list of recent power forwards aged 21 with a PER between 10.5 and 11.5.

- Jason Smith
- Al-Farouq Aminu
- Dontonio Wingfield
- Yi Jianlan
- Bill Walker
- Jared Jeffries
- Qyntel Woods
- Darrel Arthur
- Rodney White

Note that Robinson is practically 22, so he's old for this list. Seriously, if you think he has enormous upside, you're betting against history.

 
At 7:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem here really isn't if Robinson bust or not, given that most teams thought highly enough of him (it is also risky to bet against people who evaluate talent for a living. especially since this isn't baseball where draft and player development is much more of a crapshoot)

The problem here is that the King admitted to wasting a golden opportunity to get someone that might actually help them out o their current disaster less then a year after drafting him 5th overall. what does that say about the King's talent evaluation / player development? they traded for someone who has panned out about what you expect from where he was drafted (14th overall.) on the back end of his rookie contract, that has some value... IF you were a contender, but not if your in the running for the worst record.

The GOOD outcome of this trade for the Kings is that they managed to get marginal value out of a top 5 pick , that is ugly no matter how you put it, and there is at least some chance that it could turn out MUCH MUCH worse then that.

 
At 8:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Patterson might get have his development stunted with the Kings...that is a toxic environment

 
At 8:32 PM, Blogger John Pham said...

We don't need Patterson's shooting we're already the highest scoring team in the NBA. We need some interior defense and offensive rebounding.

 
At 8:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares. He's not going to play for us anyways. This trade was about getting rid of Patterson so dmo could play. The end.

 
At 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Patterson can shoot. Robinson cannot. The rockets will miss Patterson. The kings will not miss Robinson.

Thank you for this piece. It is exactly what I was thinking.

 
At 8:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Patterson is a bench player. Dmo has all star potential. Getting Thomas Robinson was just a throw in/hopeful situation. He's not even going to play for the rockets....lol at anyone who thinks this trade was about Thomas freaking Robinson....screw him and screw Patterson...dmo time baby...

 
At 8:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We could cut Thomas Robinson Tommorrow and this was still a great trade. Addition by subtraction.

 
At 9:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The author concedes twice that the Kings probably could have got a better deal for Robinson, which means that there are other GM's out there who not only agree with Morey but have even a higher opinion of Robinson.

The author also applies his own criteria rather than the Rockets' criteria to Robinson: "good rebounder but inefficient scorer." Everyone knows that the Rockets have no trouble scoring: they need defense and they have said specifically they want Robinson to come in and rebound the ball. So the author would agree that the Rockets are getting something they are seeking, he just wishes there were more scoring involved.

 
At 2:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Robinson isn't going to play for the rockets anytime soon. Who cares. This was about getting rid of Patterson and Morris. The fact that the kings were willing to throw in Thomas Robinson was just extra incentive.

I would have traded Patterson for a bag of old basketballs and some good advice. Great guy, but he was never going to be s starting pf on a good team. Good bench player is his future.

 
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At 5:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

^This guy who thinks it had anything to do with getting "DMo"? playing time is off his rocker. Morey did this thinking he acquired his starting power forward for the next several years as well as clearing enough cap space to now make a max offer to a FA without having to make any more moves. Patterson is what he is, bench scoring, Robinson is potentially a top flight starting 4 on a championship team.

 
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At 9:44 PM, Anonymous RollingWave said...

I think your point is fair, but what exactly is Houston losing here? and what is the liklihood of them improving their their respective aspects?

From my view, and i think you would agree, most bad scorers can be improved upon, to different extend if only VIA shot selection. meanwhile, how many guys improved significantly as a rebounder in their NBA career?

The way I see it, it shouldn't be too hard for them to at least improve his shot selection and turn him into something of a overall value player as Patterson, if that's the case, why not? there's at least a little chance he gets better than that. the worse case is only a small loss .

meanwhile, the Kings get nothing that help them solve their mess, they can get Lebron now and it won't help them this year, so you have to sseriously consider future value here.

 
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At 6:25 PM, Anonymous girls basketball camp austin said...

"The fact that Robinson gets 10% of his shots blocked is actually a GOOD sign"

No, it really isn't. It means he is still behind the curve of the other players in his class. It's not like the other players are going to stop developing so that he can catch up to them.

 
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I doubt the Kings will miss Robinson at all!

 
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